Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Will Titans' Henry build off late-season surge?

Justin Boone

from on 2019-08-05 15:37 (#4MHWT)

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With training camp in full swing, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his offensive projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.

Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:

Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
Passing TDs: 4 points
Interceptions: -2 points
Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Rushing TDs: 6 points
Receptions: 1 point
Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Receiving TDs: 6 points
Fumbles Lost: -2 points
Two-point Conversions: 2 points

2019 Fantasy Projections

AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
AFC South
JAX | IND | HOU | TEN
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK | LAC
NFC East
DAL | PHI | NYG | WAS
NFC North
DET | GB | MIN | CHI
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI

Tennessee TitansMarcus Mariota, QB

Fantasy Points	212.98
Attempts	426
Completions	283
Pass Yards	3237
Pass TDs	17
INTs	12
Carries	62
Rush Yards	335
Rush TDs	2
Fumbles Lost	3
2PT	0

Mariota is facing a make-or-break year in Tennessee. The 25-year-old's backers point to injuries and a lack of consistency from play-callers as reasons for the disappointing start to his career. However, with one of the best supporting casts he's ever had surrounding him, Mariota is now out of excuses in 2019. The quarterback position is deep enough in fantasy that he doesn't need to be rostered entering the season. If Mariota shines early in the year, you can scoop him up off the waiver wire as a QB2/streamer.

Quarterback depth: Ryan Tannehill's presence should be slightly concerning for Mariota, as the former Dolphin gives Tennessee a legitimate backup option. Prior to parting ways with Miami, Tannehill's NFL journey was similar to Mariota's as a top-10 pick who failed to emerge as the star signal-caller the franchise hoped it was drafting. At this stage in their careers, it's unlikely either passer plays at a level worthy of the draft capital invested in them.

Derrick Henry, RB

Fantasy Points	208.6
Carries	268
Rush Yards	1190
Rush TDs	10
Fumbles Lost	1
Targets	23
Receptions	18
Rec. Yards	136
Rec. TDs	0
2PT	0

There are a lot of red flags attached to Henry's fantasy value, many of which you can read about in our 2019 bust candidates article. Here's a summary of the main warning signs:

Never finished as a top-24 back in fantasy
Was RB34 through 12 games in 2018
Took advantage of weak or disheartened defenses in December 2018
Doesn't get a huge role in the passing game
Left tackle Taylor Lewan is suspended four games

Henry is also dealing with a calf strain that's expected to keep him out at least two weeks, and it could linger if not allowed to heal properly. There are simply better running backs to target in the fourth round, especially in PPR leagues.

Dion Lewis, RB

Fantasy Points	126.4
Carries	112
Rush Yards	379
Rush TDs	1
Fumbles Lost	1
Targets	56
Receptions	47
Rec. Yards	315
Rec. TDs	1
2PT	0

Lewis' effectiveness as a runner fell off a cliff last season. His 3.3 yards per carry average on 155 attempts was the lowest mark of the veteran's career by over a yard. He'll retain a significant pass-catching role, but entering his age-29 season, we have to wonder whether Lewis will keep offering upside as a potential handcuff if Henry misses time. In that scenario, Lewis would likely split snaps with one of the team's younger ball carriers, making him a less desirable fantasy asset.

Running back depth: David Fluellen bulked up in the offseason and is receiving some of his snaps at fullback, while Jeremy McNichols is mostly a receiving-down threat. Further down the depth chart, Dayln Dawkins and Alex Barnes are fighting to earn a roster spot. The team would likely look to the free-agent market for help if Henry misses an extended period.

Corey Davis, WR

Fantasy Points	187.6
Targets	114
Receptions	67
Rec. Yards	908
Rec. TDs	5
Carries	3
Rush Yards	18
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	1
2PT	0

The third year of a receiver's career used to be the most common window for a breakout. Davis, who's entering his third season, improved on his rookie stat line by adding 31 more receptions, 516 more yards, and four more touchdowns as a sophomore. The talent is there, and now consistency and volume need to increase for him to reach his ceiling. That could be difficult to accomplish with rookie A.J. Brown and free-agent signing Adam Humphries joining Davis on the Titans' receiver depth chart, along with veteran tight end Delanie Walker returning from a year lost to injury. Davis will once again be a fantasy WR3 with upside, but the competition for targets in an offense projected to be built around the run pushes him below some of the other exciting wideouts available in the middle rounds.

A.J. Brown, WR

Fantasy Points	124.1
Targets	71
Receptions	44
Rec. Yards	561
Rec. TDs	4
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

Brown has been sidelined since slipping and appearing to suffer a lower-body injury during drills. Missing valuable practice time can impact a rookie's first-year outlook, and Brown is no exception. When healthy, he possesses the potential to challenge Davis and become the most dangerous receiver in a Titans uniform. But we may not see that version of Brown until later in the year. Consider him a dart throw in the late rounds.

Receiver depth: As a reliable slot receiver, Humphries saw 105 targets in his final year with the Buccaneers, allowing him to finish as the WR24 in fantasy. You'd be foolish to bet on him getting that kind of volume in Tennessee, which pushes Humphries into the fantasy territory of a low-ceiling bye-week replacement. Taywan Taylor and Tajae Sharpe are solid depth pieces in real life, but they haven't been able to turn their opportunities into fantasy production.

Delanie Walker, TE

Fantasy Points	145.2
Targets	89
Receptions	58
Rec. Yards	632
Rec. TDs	4
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

Walker was placed on injured reserve in 2018 after suffering a broken ankle in Week 1. Fortunately, he avoided the PUP list to start camp and should be ready to go for the season opener. Though the injury and his age (34) might scare off some fantasy managers, Walker is offering great value in drafts while being selected in the 12th round as the TE13. Prior to last year, the three-time Pro Bowler had recorded four straight campaigns with 800-plus receiving yards, giving him top-five tight-end fantasy upside.

Tight end depth: Jonnu Smith, Walker's assumed successor, tore his MCL in Week 14 last year and might not be ready for the start of the 2019 regular season. That could open the door for Anthony Firsker after he flashed starting skill in limited opportunities a year ago.

2019 Fantasy Projections

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