AFC West betting preview and predictions

The AFC West had not one, but two teams ripe for unseating the New England Patriots last season, to no avail. Both the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs got their shots in the playoffs, but each club watched New England emerge triumphant on its way to hoisting another Lombardi Trophy.

Kansas City and L.A. should contend once again in a top-heavy division. The Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos have fallen off in recent seasons; who knows how long it'll be before either can shift the balance of power.

Here, we dive into the best bets, value plays, and picks to avoid in the AFC West for 2019.

(Over prices listed in parentheses)

Team	Win Total	AFC West Odds
Kansas City Chiefs	10.5 (+100)	1-2
Los Angeles Chargers	9.5 (-140)	2-1
Denver Broncos	7 (-110)	16-1
Oakland Raiders	6 (+105)	20-1

Best bet

Raiders under 6 wins (-125)

Perhaps it's the "Hard Knocks" effect or Oakland's offseason overhaul, but the consensus seems to be on the Raiders improving this season. That's not exactly a high bar to clear after they went 4-12 in 2018.

There are new faces that should have Raiders fans excited. Star wide receiver Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams should help the team's aerial attack, Lamarcus Joyner is a solid addition to Oakland's secondary, and Trent Brown, the highest-graded tackle in the playoffs last season, gives the offensive line a boost.

However, it still feels like the Raiders are stuck in quicksand. Derek Carr fell off the map after one good season, the defense - which ranked last in points per game allowed with 29.2 in 2018 - can't be trusted, and the team plays the NFL's toughest schedule in 2019.

Despite the roster's fresh look and a perceived clean slate under head coach Jon Gruden, going under six wins for Oakland this season is the best bet on the board.

Value play

Chargers to win the AFC West (2-1)

You wouldn't have guessed it, but the Chargers are yet again everyone's sleeper Super Bowl pick.

The best part about this wager is that it doesn't account for anything past the regular season! Which means you won't have to lie in the fetal position in the corner of your living room when the Chargers inevitably blow a double-digit lead or get blown out in the postseason.

The Chiefs are explosive and have Patrick Mahomes, the face of the NFL, under center. However, the talent on Kansas City and L.A.'s rosters is comparable. What's more, the Chiefs are tied for the fifth-most difficult schedule in the league, while L.A.'s is tied for 16th.

Do I enjoy betting on a team that loves to fall as double-digit favorites and finds a way to lose every game decided by three points or fewer? No. But I would recommend taking the Chargers to win the division at anything better than 6-4.

Bet to avoid

Chiefs over 10.5 wins (+100)

Mahomes' 2018 season was so ridiculous, it'd be more bizarre if he didn't take a small step back. While the jury is still out on if he's actually human, it's not a hot take to predict regression for him and the Chiefs' offense, even if it's slight.

However, the red flags for Kansas City are on the other side of the ball. If Mahomes and the offense aren't clicking, I'm not sure there's a reason to believe the Chiefs' defense can single-handedly win them games.

I'm not endorsing a full-fledged play on the under, but I wouldn't assume Kansas City will stay on last season's trajectory.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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