Top 5 NFL player prop bets for the 2019 season

Season-long player prop bets in the NFL market are cut from the same cloth as standard win totals: Instead of taking a stance game by game, you can wager on a full season's worth of production. There are soft numbers out there to capitalize on, especially if you're higher or lower on certain players.

Here are five player props I'm dialing in on for the 2019 NFL season.

Marcus Mariota Over 3,025.5 passing yards

Mariota has not lived up to the hype. He's also been plagued by instability. Both things can be true.

About to play for his fifth offensive coordinator in as many seasons, the Titans quarterback has experienced a steady drop-off since his best campaign in 2016. He threw for more interceptions than touchdowns the following year, and in 2018, he recorded a whopping 11 passing touchdowns.

It's the same song and dance every season, but this time, the pieces should be there to prevent Mariota from flunking out. Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor are a year older, A.J. Brown should make an immediate impact (if his hamstring injury isn't significant), and the offensive line is a top-five unit by Pro Football Focus' standards.

There's some concern that Mariota could end up in a backup role behind Ryan Tannehill, but I have a tough time believing the franchise will pull the plug. If Mariota stays even relatively healthy, this one's a banger.

Ben Roethlisberger Under 4,459.5 passing yards

While I believe the Steelers are still a playoff-caliber AFC team, Roethlisberger desperately needs someone to step up. Based on the system and passing tendencies in Pittsburgh, there will be plenty of yards to go around - I'm just skeptical the skill corps can combine to surpass this number. JuJu Smith-Schuster is being thrust into the No. 1 role, James Washington and rookie Diontae Johnson will have more responsibility, and Donte Moncrief is a good-but-not-great receiver. The Steelers should have no trouble surpassing .500 as a team, but I'm unsure how Roethlisberger gets past this total.

Joe Mixon Over 1,199.5 rushing yards

Mixon was the AFC North's leading rusher last season with 1,168 yards and should take another step forward. Despite rushing with at least eight defenders in the box 16 percent of the time in 2018, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry. There's a common perception that the Bengals' passing game will blossom with head coach Zac Taylor coming over from Sean McVay's system, but the Rams were in the top 10 for rushing-play percentage a year ago. Given how often Cincinnati's receiving corps is banged-up, Mixon should get plenty of opportunities to build on his 2018 breakout.

Sam Darnold Over 23.5 passing touchdowns

Despite some growing pains as a rookie, Darnold threw 17 touchdown passes in 13 games last season. If he makes any sort of improvement, he should have no problem going over the number.

Truthfully, the Jets' skill corps still needs some more polish - after Le'Veon Bell and Robby Anderson, Darnold's supporting cast is bleak. This might not be the year for a Darnold breakout. However, his production doesn't need to climb massively for him to hit this total, especially if he gets a full season under center.

Nick Foles Over 12.5 interceptions

Don't be surprised if Foles' fortunes turn in his first season with the Jaguars. Although he threw only four interceptions over a small sample size in 2018 with Philadelphia, he recorded seven interceptable passes and nine danger plays, according to PlayerProfiler.com. The year prior, he only registered a pair of picks despite five interceptable passes and 12 danger plays.

That's probably because Philadelphia's skill corps bailed him out - Foles had a supporting cast efficiency rating of plus-1.75 last season with the Eagles. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's offense was minus-11.46 in the same category. With the drastic drop-off in the talent surrounding him, Foles' numbers might not look too pretty in 2019.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

Copyright (C) 2019 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.