NFL receiving leader odds and roundtable predictions
With the start of the NFL season just over three weeks away, Thomas Casale, Alex Kolodziej, and C Jackson Cowart go over their favorite bets for who will lead the league in receiving yards. Included are best bets, value plays, and players to avoid.
Odds to lead NFL in receiving yards| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 15-2 (+750) |
| Michael Thomas | 8-1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 8-1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9-1 |
| Davante Adams | 10-1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 10-1 |
| Antonio Brown | 12-1 |
| Mike Evans | 12-1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 12-1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 14-1 |
| Keenan Allen | 18-1 |
| Adam Thielen | 18-1 |
| Amari Cooper | 28-1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 30-1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 30-1 |
| Kenny Golladay | 30-1 |
| Travis Kelce | 40-1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 40-1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 40-1 |
| Robert Woods | 50-1 |
| George Kittle | 50-1 |
| Zach Ertz | 50-1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 50-1 |
| Julian Edelman | 66-1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 66-1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 66-1 |
| Robby Anderson | 66-1 |
| Chris Godwin | 75-1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 75-1 |
| D.J. Moore | 75-1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 75-1 |
TC: Give me DeAndre Hopkins. I took Deshaun Watson at 20-1 as my value play to lead the NFL in passing yards too. The Texans' defense finished 28th against the pass last year and it could be even worse in 2019. So, expect Watson, Hopkins, and Co. to be in a lot of shootouts. If Will Fuller can finally stay healthy, it will actually help Hopkins because opposing defenses need to respect Fuller's speed and won't be able to focus so much attention on Nuk. Hopkins finished second in this category last season with a career-high 1,572 receiving yards. Expect similar production this year, putting him in position to cash at 9-1.
AK: I like Jameis Winston to lead the league in passing, so give me Mike Evans at 12-1 to pace the NFL in receiving yards. While Fuller should help Hopkins in Houston, DeSean Jackson being out of the mix will do wonders for Evans in Tampa Bay. Bruce Arians-coached teams in Arizona were second in the league in air yards, and Evans is a sneaky-good vertical threat despite being a mammoth 6-foot-5. He put up a quiet 1,524 yards last season and is in an ideal spot to go bananas again.
CJC: Hopkins and Evans are two of my favorite picks, but I just can't pass up Julio Jones. He's already said he might "mess around" and go for 3,000 yards, but we only need half that for a chance to cash this bet. Jones won the 2018 receiving crown with 1,677 yards after finishing second, second, first, and third in the previous four seasons. The pass-happy Falcons lost Tevin Coleman in free agency and drafted two first-round linemen to protect Matt Ryan. They also replaced maligned offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian with pass-crazed Dirk Koetter. Jones should be the runaway favorite, and he's a steal at 15-2.
Who is the top value play?TC: Tyler Boyd at 40-1 is appealing. Some still consider Boyd a No. 2 receiver, but he proved otherwise last year. With A.J. Green sidelined for seven games, Boyd racked up 76 receptions and 1,026 yards on the season. Now, Green is hurt again and is expected to miss multiple regular-season contests following ankle surgery. That means Boyd is in line to see plenty of targets as new head coach Zac Taylor finds more ways to utilize his versatile receiver. Boyd recorded more than 70 yards receiving seven times last year, and with the Bengals expected to be one of the NFL's worst teams, the offense will likely be playing from behind a lot in 2019. Boyd is worth a flier at 40-1.
AK: There are so many receivers who are undersold in this spot - Fuller at 125-1 being one - although I want to be realistic here. I know this is going to sound bonkers, but George Kittle at 50-1 is disrespectful, and yes, I know he's a tight end. But he's essentially a wide receiver, and I believe his odds are too long. The 49ers still don't have a true threat outside of Kittle, who bagged 1,377 yards last season ... with Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard under center. Now that Jimmy Garoppolo is back, give me Kittle at 50-1. Tight ends are people too!
CJC: Could this be the year for Stefon Diggs (30-1)? Diggs finished last year with 102 receptions (11th) and 1,021 yards (20th) despite sharing the field with Adam Thielen, and he was quarterback Kirk Cousins' preferred target in the final eight games of the year. Among receivers that finished in the top 40 in yards, Diggs' 6.9 yards per target ranked dead last. His previous career average was 8.5, so that leaves plenty of room for growth should Diggs see a similar target volume, which seems doable in his second year with Cousins. I actually don't mind Thielen at 18-1 either, but Diggs at 30-1 is too much value to pass up.
Which player should bettors avoid?TC: How bad is Raiders quarterback Derek Carr? Ask Amari Cooper. From 2016 until he was traded to the Dallas Cowboys last season, Cooper recorded 39 yards or fewer 17 times in 36 games. He finished with 10 yards or less eight times. Good luck, Antonio Brown, as it's going to be a long year in Oakland with Carr checking down to his running backs. Don't even consider betting Brown at 12-1.
AK: I know my colleague Jackson loves the Vikings this year but I'm hopping off the Adam Thielen train because 18-1 is an absolute travesty - maybe the fade of our lifetime. The Vikings saw a huge shift in philosophy when they swapped out OC John DeFillipo for Kevin Stefanski, ranking sixth in run percentage under the latter. There's some upside with the Vikings' offense this season, but I think Dalvin Cook is the guy to explode, not Thielen. It's a terrible number here.
CJC: Thomas' pick of Brown is the winner. Jon Gruden's conservative approach turned Carr into a glorified checkdown artist - he tied for last in the NFL with 6.7 intended air yards per attempt - which is a brutal fit with AB's ability to extend plays downfield and shred zone defenses like he did in Pittsburgh. Fade Brown to the moon.
I'm also down on Tyreek Hill at 12-1. Off-the-field issues aside, Hill is a major regression candidate after netting 1,479 yards in Patrick Mahomes' supernova first season as a starter. If Mahomes' yardage dips below 5,000 - it has to, right? - Hill is the main loser, with a healthier Sammy Watkins already cutting into his target share.
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