Preseason NFL betting takeaways

You either love preseason football because the sport is back, hate the product because it's mostly reserve players, or look at it as another opportunity to bet.

We fall into the third category here.

Typically viewed as degeneracy, the NFL preseason is actually a perfect four-week window to bet if you have an edge over the market. And although the regular season is a different beast, there are certainly takeaways that can carry over into the year.

Here are a handful from a betting perspective.

Buccaneers will be another popular over bet

A subjective take, but don't be surprised if there are more Tampa Bay overs in our top plays of the week this season.

There were 12 Buccaneers games last year that closed with a total of 50 or higher. It was certainly warranted, too. Last year's squad, despite the constant flip-flop at starting quarterback, featured a pass-heavy offense (No. 6 in pass play percentage) and a defense that couldn't stop anyone. Now they have head coach Bruce Arians, whose Cardinals from 2013-17 posted the second-most air yards per attempt in the league.

After watching the Bucs throw the ball 57 times in Week 1 of the preseason, that was the nail in the coffin. You can expect more of the same in 2019.

Don't buy the Giants' passing offense

The team with the most passing yards so far in the preseason is surprisingly the New York Giants, who are at 891 heading into Saturday. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones leads the way with 369, along with a pair of touchdowns and zero interceptions. The offense as a whole has been cruising, averaging 29.3 points per game through the first three contests.

This is your perfect case of fool's gold.

It's tough to imagine New York morphing into an over machine when the games matter. This is an offense that traded away Odell Beckham Jr., lost Corey Coleman to a torn ACL, still has Sterling Shepard sidelined to a fractured thumb, and will be without Golden Tate for the first four games of the season. They also start off the campaign against two of the top defenses from last year - Buffalo and Dallas - and have Minnesota and New England in the first six weeks.

But they'll always have the preseason stats, and that counts for something.

The Ravens' defense is still legit

When the Ravens lost Eric Weddle, Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley, and Za'Darius Smith from last season's unit, there was cause for concern.

Then this happened.

KENNY@KennyYounggg pic.twitter.com/fStHSNEnwy

- Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) August 9, 2019

Baltimore's defense has held its own so far in the preseason, allowing just 9.3 points per game. Even though Lamar Jackson is primed for a leap in Year 2, expect more totals in the mid-40s for the Ravens.

Pass interference challenges will ruin morale

There is no such thing as a lock, especially in the NFL. Until now.

Whether you bet big or small, on one team religiously or the entire league, there is now a stone-cold, cant-miss, guaranteed lock of the century: You will lose a game on a pass interference challenge and watch your morale severely plummet.

As if having the under and needing an opposing team to keep a garbage time score out of the end zone wasn't the slowest of burns, prepare for a fourth-down heave to go incomplete and the game to be over, only for a head coach to reach into his pocket and throw the red flag frisbee-style on the 30-yard line.

You're going to lose a game - perhaps multiple - on a pass interference challenge and it'll feel like the end of the world. And that right there is an angle that will finish 100 percent this season.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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