Odds, best bets, and value picks to lead the NHL in goals
Alex Ovechkin has won the Rocket Richard trophy so many times, he deserves partial naming rights.
The Washington Capitals winger has claimed it in six of the last seven seasons as the NHL's top goal-scorer, which is why he's got the shortest odds to win it again in 2019-20. At the pace Ovechkin is scoring it's foolish to advise against betting on him, but there's a new crop of young players emerging in the league that offer plenty of value.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 5-1 |
| John Tavares | 11-1 |
| Patrik Laine | 12-1 |
| Connor McDavid | 13-1 |
| Auston Matthews | 14-1 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 16-1 |
| Nikita Kucherov | 16-1 |
| Alex DeBrincat | 21-1 |
| Leon Draisaitl | 28-1 |
| Patrick Kane | 30-1 |
| Brayden Point | 34-1 |
| David Pastrnak | 34-1 |
| Mark Scheifele | 34-1 |
| Steven Stamkos | 34-1 |
| Taylor Hall | 34-1 |
| Vlad Tarasenko | 34-1 |
| Cam Atkinson | 40-1 |
| Jake Guentzel | 40-1 |
| Tyler Seguin | 46-1 |
| Mark Stone | 49-1 |
| Sidney Crosby | 49-1 |
| Johnny Gaudreau | 50-1 |
After scoring 40 goals as a 19-year-old in his rookie season, Matthews has yet to reach those lofty heights since, managing 34 and 37 in his two subsequent campaigns. Injuries have prevented him from making the expected jump to 50, as he's been held under 70 games in both seasons since appearing in all 82 his first year in the league.
Matthews' ice time, or lack thereof, has also been a hot issue in Toronto - the center has never been among the leaders on the Maple Leafs in that category. He was also fourth on the team among forwards in power-play time per game in each of the last two seasons. Does his ice time really need to increase for Matthews to take a run at the Rocket Richard trophy? He was scoring at a 45-goal pace over 82 games last season, and he leads the entire NHL in goals per 60 minutes since his debut in 2016. A scoring outburst feels inevitable, regardless of how Mike Babcock elects to deploy him. A career year is on the precipice provided he can keep himself on the ice.
Alex DeBrincat (21-1) - Best BetThere's a lot to like about DeBrincat, who potted 41 goals last year in just his second NHL season and finished seventh in the league in goals per 60 minutes. His minutes only figure to increase as he becomes an integral part of the Blackhawks. He'll be playing alongside former OHL linemate Dylan Strome on the second line and getting top power-play time with Patrick Kane. DeBrincat scored 10 goals in 24 games (0.41 per game) before the team acquired Strome, and 31 in 58 after (0.53 per game). It would be surprising not to see him take another step forward in 2019-20.
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / GettyJake Guentzel (40-1) - Value PlayGuentzel had a career season last year, as the Pittsburgh Penguins winger enjoyed his first 40-goal campaign while setting new highs in assists and points at the ripe age of 24. Another 40-goal season is well within reach, especially playing alongside Sidney Crosby, but he will need an uptick in power-play time to push for 50. He averaged just 2:07 of PP time per game last season, which was 191st in the NHL. With Phil Kessel (3:14 PPT/G last season) in Arizona, there's a legitimate shot he sees his time on the top unit skyrocket.
Viktor Arvidsson (60-1) - Value PlayUnquestionably the best value on the board, Arvidsson registered 34 goals last season despite being limited to just 58 games. He was scoring at an elite rate, with his 0.59 goals per game trailing only Ovechkin (0.63) and Leon Draisaitl (0.61); He was joint-top of the NHL in goals per 60 minutes, along with David Pastrnak. His shooting percentage is in line for regression after jumping to 17.4 from a previous career high of 12.6, but at 26 years old, coming off his third full season in the NHL, there's reason to believe the jump could be sustainable. Either way, at the rate the Nashville Predators forward was scoring at last season, this price is way too high.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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