Monday Night Football betting preview: Bengals at Steelers

It wasn't hard to predict an 0-3 start for the Cincinnati Bengals this year, but few expected the Pittsburgh Steelers would join them among the winless ahead of Monday night's divisional bout.

Ben Roethlisberger's season-ending injury in Week 2 surely didn't help matters, though the offense looked lost even with him, while Pittsburgh's secondary has been atrocious. The Bengals haven't been much better offensively and have one of the worst defensive units in football.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:

Line movement

The Steelers opened at -4.5 at most books but were bet down to -3.5, even with the public mostly split on the AFC North rivals. Sharps don't appear to see much difference between two winless squads, and two bad defenses have nudged the total up from 43.5 to 45 as of Sunday evening.

Betting trends

Pittsburgh has owned Cincinnati this decade, with a 13-6 record (68.4%) against the spread and a 16-3 mark (84.2%) straight up. None of those came without Roethlisberger, whose elbow injury thrust backup Mason Rudolph into action.

The Steelers have been barely profitable without Roethlisberger since 2004, but they've struggled mightily as of late. Pittsburgh had lost four straight ATS without its starting quarterback until Sunday's cover, and it's 1-3 ATS this decade as home favorites without Big Ben.

With and without Roethlisberger, the Steelers have been poor bets ATS with a 3-7 record in their last 10. The Bengals, meanwhile, are on a 6-1 ATS run and have covered six straight as road underdogs.

In the last 30 years, 0-3 teams have only faced off 15 times in Week 4. The road team is 10-4 ATS (71.4%) - one was at a neutral site - and 5-3 ATS as a 'dog, with four outright wins in their last five tries.

The X-factor

Any way you slice it, the Steelers and Bengals are two of the NFL's poorest teams. The key difference is at quarterback, where Andy Dalton has been average and Mason Rudolph has been arguably the worst quarterback in the league.

Rudolph's Pro Football Focus grade of 43.4 is second worst among any QBs with at least five attempts, and Pittsburgh's receiving corps is the second-lowest graded unit thus far. Both teams have floundering secondaries, but the Steelers' inability to take advantage hinders their chances of building a sizable lead.

Pick

With neither team showing any promise through the first two weeks, it's hard to lay more than a field goal on Rudolph and the disappointing Steelers. Dalton is 8-3 ATS in his last 11 as an underdog and is competent enough to find holes in Pittsburgh's maligned defense, which spells value for the road 'dog.

The under is also worth a strong look here. When the total is at least 44, the under is 13-4 (76.5%) between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and 35-16-1 (68.6%) all-time between two AFC North teams. The Bengals have seen just one over in their last eight games, while the Steelers are on an 8-4 under run.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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