Monday Night Football betting preview: Lions at Packers

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The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions both enter Week 6 with just one loss straight up and against the spread.

With Aaron Rodgers looking pedestrian thus far, the Packers have relied on a dominant defense en route to the NFC's second-best record. On the other side, the Lions' talented defense has been as expected, but Matthew Stafford has upped his play and nearly led an upset over Kansas City in Week 4.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:

Line movement

This game is shaping up as a classic "Pros vs. Joes." Most tickets are on the Packers, per Sports Insights, but sharps have pushed this line from Packers -6 to -4.5 at theScore Bet as of Saturday. The total has also bumped down a point from 46.5 to 45.5.

Betting trends

The Packers are rolling with four wins ATS in their last five, capped off by a dominant showing over the Cowboys. The Lions have also won four of their last five ATS and enter Monday with 15 days of preparation after a bye week.

Road underdogs coming off a bye are 41-28-1 ATS (59.4%) since 2012, with a 10-2-1 ATS run and seven outright wins in the last 13 tries. The Lions are 6-1 ATS off a bye since 2012, including a win in Matt Patricia's first year in 2018.

Meanwhile, this is a spot Rodgers thrives in. The quarterback is 50-31-1 ATS (61.7%) as a home favorite, including a scorching 21-9-1 ATS (70%) versus NFC North foes. He's also 11-6-1 ATS (64.7%) in his career against the Lions.

That said, when teams get a week to prep for Rodgers, the Green Bay signal-caller has fared less favorably. Since 2012, the Packers are 2-5 ATS in Rodgers' regular-season starts when the opponent is coming off a bye - the latest instance coming in a 2015 loss to Detroit. Green Bay has averaged just 210.1 passing yards and 23.6 points in those games.

Rodgers is also 6-9 ATS on Monday, while the Lions are on a 5-2 ATS run in that spot.

The X-factor

If Rodgers doesn't have his A-game, the ground attack could decide this matchup. Packers back Aaron Jones went off against Dallas but has tended to struggle after breakout games, averaging just 28 rushing yards in four contests after a 100-yard effort.

Conversely, Lions back Kerryon Johnson racked up 125 yards against the Chiefs' maligned run defense and faces an equally inept unit in Green Bay, which has allowed an average of 161.25 rushing yards against its last four opponents. Detroit has covered five straight when rushing for at least 125 yards.

Pick

It's no surprise the public is on the Packers after last week's showing vs. public favorite Dallas. But the Lions have quietly been one of the more impressive teams this year, and the defensive-minded Patricia will throw two weeks' worth of preparation against an underwhelming Rodgers.

Follow the sharps and bet the road underdog on Monday. It's also worth giving the under a look in what should be a grind-it-out affair.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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