Thursday Night Football betting preview: Redskins vs. Vikings

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Week 8 kicks off Thursday when the Washington Redskins travel to take on the Minnesota Vikings. Here's everything you need to know about the NFC clash from a betting perspective.

Line movement

It's been all Minnesota money so far. The Vikings opened -14 but ticked all the way up to -16, which is where the line sits as of Wednesday. Wide receiver Adam Thielen is dealing with an injury that cut his afternoon short Sunday - and has since been ruled out of Thursday's matchup - which caused the line to drop to -15 for a short period earlier this week. Nonetheless, the Vikings should close as two-touchdown-plus favorites at home on a short week. There's also been some over money, as the total has risen from the opening number of 40 to 42, with the Redskins getting a boost from playing indoors in much friendlier weather conditions than they dealt with against the San Francisco 49ers.

Betting breakdown

The Vikings are playing with a serious chip on their shoulder as they find themselves likely at the peak of their market price. Minnesota has averaged a whopping 7.2 yards per play over its last three games, which brings it to No. 3 in the league in that department. Meanwhile, a unit that didn't mind playing conservatively last season has flipped the switch: the Vikings have the league's most explosive offense, as it leads in both explosive run and pass rate. While the defense remains stout, perhaps some of these lower totals will stick around for another week or two.

Washington's defense looks to be finding its groove, though it's important to acknowledge the strength of schedule and other influencing factors. So, while the Redskins have allowed only 16 points over the last two weeks, those games were against the Miami Dolphins and in a torrential downpour Sunday against a run-heavy 49ers team. There's very little upside with this team right now as it goes through some coaching turnover and deals with injuries on the offensive side of the ball.

Important trends

Minnesota has been a tough place to play in. Though home-field advantage hasn't meant much this season (road teams are covering at an alarming rate), the Vikings are on a 20-6 run against the spread on their home turf. The under has been a good play in this spot, too, as Minnesota is on an 8-0 run on the total when it's a favorite of 10 or more at home.

X-Factor

Redskins quarterback Case Keenum will be back in Minnesota just two seasons removed from leading the franchise to the NFC Championship Game. It's been tough sledding since that postseason run, as Keenum toiled away in Denver for a season before being shipped to a franchise with no real identity. The veteran put up some big numbers early in the campaign despite the team's lack of success. But when you're almost exclusively trailing by double digits, that's not difficult. While Washington has been able to run the ball lately, Keenum will likely have to drop back more often than not as he tries to conjure up some magic against his former team as a 16-point underdog and with Adrian Peterson banged up.

PickVikings' team total over 28.5

You don't really want to overthink this. Minnesota's offense has been humming. Cousins has been dominant in the play-action game and is getting everyone involved. The loss of Thielen certainly hurts, but the Vikings have enough talent to move the ball effortlessly against a defense that hasn't been tested in a couple of weeks. Expect the Vikings' explosiveness to be on display against a unit with only a few days to prepare.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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