NFL best bets for Week 8

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Every Friday during the NFL season, theScore's betting writers will release their best bets for the week. Each writer has been given an imaginary $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the campaign. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.

Odds courtesy of theScore Bet.

Thomas Casale ($1,108)

Season record: 5-3-1, +$108

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Listen, I'm happy to continue fading Dan Quinn for as long as the Falcons allow me to. It's shocking that Quinn is still the head coach after his club dropped its fifth straight, with three of those losses coming by at least two touchdowns. Atlanta doesn't get a break this week, either, as the Seahawks are coming off a home loss to the Baltimore Ravens and will be in a foul mood. To make matters worse, Matt Ryan is dealing with an ankle injury and could miss Sunday's game, forcing veteran Matt Schaub into action. With Atlanta headed into a bye, Quinn is likely coaching his final Falcons game on Sunday. Fade away.

Pick: Seahawks -3.5 ($100)

Note: Seattle -3.5 was still available at some books as of Friday, while others have the game off the board due to Ryan's uncertain status. The market began moving the number to -7 Friday afternoon. I'd play Seattle up to -7 in this spot, especially if Ryan is out.

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)

I'm taking the Jets purely on the number, as I have it closer to -3. There is some recency bias here because the Jets got drilled Monday night by the New England Patriots, but this is the team that beat the Dallas Cowboys just two weeks ago in a game that Sam Darnold shined. Don't overreact to one loss, especially when it comes against a Patriots team that could have an all-time great defense. Jacksonville is overvalued at close to a touchdown favorite, so I'll take the points.

Pick: Jets +6.5 ($100)

Alex Kolodziej ($1,053)

Season record: 8-5, +$53

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 41.5

I don't think the market has properly adjusted to Jacksonville totals this season. The Jaguars relied on their defense to carry a relatively inept offensive unit for years, but they've flipped the script this season. They're No. 3 in explosive run rate and No. 8 in explosive pass rate on offense and in the bottom 10 of both explosive run/pass allowed. There's some bad blood between Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone and the Jets franchise, and he showed his displeasure last season by running up the score and then opting for a two-point conversion in the waning seconds while already up plenty. I think you'll see a fair share of deep shots from the offense.

For the Jets, this is a fantastic opportunity to get back on track after Darnold was humiliated by both the Patriots' defense and ESPN mics. I don't think you're going to see him down for long. This total feels a couple points too low.

Pick: Over 41.5 ($40)

Alex Moretto ($779)

Season record: 6-8, -$221

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5, 41.5)

As far as quarterback performances go, Mitch Trubisky set a low bar in Week 7, and Darnold still wound up under it. Public perception of Darnold and the Jets' offense couldn't be much lower right now, which provides excellent value in this game.

Darnold's three starts this season have all come against top-five defenses, so this should feel like a vacation for him against a middling Jaguars unit. Jacksonville has allowed 28 pass plays of at least 20 yards this season (only two teams have allowed more). Look for home run hitter Robby Anderson to stretch the field and connect with Darnold on some big plays. Six points is a drastic overreaction to the Jets' loss to New England and you should take it and run in a game they can easily win outright. Meanwhile, this total feels more appropriate for a Jaguars game in 2017. These teams have too much talent at the skill positions to be limited by a pair of pedestrian defenses.

Picks: Jets +6.5 ($60), over 41.5 ($60)

C Jackson Cowart ($755)

Season record: 6-8-1, -$245

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

This line is truly baffling. Atlanta's offense, better in reputation than practice, could be without its starting quarterback. Its defense has allowed more points than any team in the NFL has this season. Oh, and its coach's seat is so hot that it's melting. The Seahawks didn't look sharp last week but are still worlds better than the Falcons. Expect Seattle to rebound against an opponent it can manhandle physically.

Pick: Seahawks -3.5 ($100)

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