Thursday Night Football betting preview: 49ers vs. Cardinals

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The San Francisco 49ers, one of only two undefeated teams in the NFL, travel to take on the Arizona Cardinals for Thursday Night Football. Here's everything you need to know about the Week 9 opener from a betting perspective.

Line movement

San Francisco opened as a seven-point favorite, though that number is long gone. The 49ers were bet up all the way to double-digits this week, moving from -9.5 to a juiced -10.5 before settling back down to -10 flat. The total's tricky for this one, considering the Niners have been an under team while the Cardinals have seen their fair share of shootouts. With the stark contrast in styles, the total opened at 44 and was bet down to 43, where it's currently at.

Betting breakdown

The Cardinals hit a second gear there for a minute, winning three consecutive games before losing by 22 to the Saints last weekend. Much of the success over that streak was due to the schedule, as Arizona's offense posted at least 26 points in victories over the Bengals, Falcons, and Giants. But against New Orleans, the Cardinals were held out of the end zone and settled for just three field goals. It'll be an even stiffer test this week against a 49ers defense that is No. 1 in the league in a bevy of categories, including yards per play allowed (4.1) and yards per completion (8.2). The 49ers are both 5-2 against the spread and to the under, allowing just 11 points per game this season.

There's also a clear advantage for the San Francisco front seven on Thursday. The Niners are No. 6 in stuff rate, No. 4 in total sacks, and No. 1 in adjusted sack rate. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have allowed the fourth-most sacks in the league and are extremely thin in the backfield due to injuries.

Important trends

This is a revenge situation for San Francisco, which has dropped eight straight to the Cardinals. Historically, the Niners have been great in this spot and are currently on a 10-1 run straight up and 8-2-1 ATS when seeking revenge. Additionally, they're 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS when that opponent has a record of .333 or worse. Good luck, Cardinals.

X-factor

Kyler Murray faces a defense that's allowed quarterbacks to net an average of 117.4 passing yards per game over the last five. But Murray's a dual-threat who can make plays with his legs, which should come in handy. The daunting pass rush of the Niners should see the pocket close rather quick, forcing Murray to extend plays on the run. His rushing yards total could be a great prop bet, but his passing yards? Not so much, which leads us to the best bet.

PickMurray under 215.5 passing yards

The 49ers' pass rush has been elite and the coverage on the back end has been flawless. Because of that, they haven't allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 200 yards since Week 2. San Francisco is a true no-fly zone, pacing the league in explosive pass rate allowed this season. Murray might be in passing situations virtually all night, but so was Kyle Allen last week, and all he did was throw for 158 yards and three interceptions. San Francisco's defense isn't a good matchup for anyone, let alone a rookie quarterback with a subpar receiving corps, at best.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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