NFL undefeated/winless odds: Can Patriots, 49ers stay perfect?
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Just under halfway through the NFL season, the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers keep winning, while the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals keep losing. Can any of those four trends last over the second half?
New England, which made history with the first 16-0 regular season in 2007, has 5-1 odds to pull off the feat again this year after blitzing its first eight opponents by an average of 23.6 points per game. Its first real test comes this week at Baltimore, the only opponent all year to get fewer than six points versus the Patriots.
Don't forget about the Niners, who are 15-1 to go undefeated a week after dropping 51 points on a stout Panthers defense. Conversely, the lowly Dolphins are 6-1 to lose out, while the Bengals are a mere 5-1 after installing backup quarterback Ryan Finley as their new starter post-bye.
Here are those four teams' odds of making history and a breakdown of their respective chances.
Odds to go 16-0| TEAM | YES | NO |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots (8-0) | 5-1 | 1-7 |
| San Francisco 49ers (7-0) | 15-1 | 1-50 |
New England Patriots
When the schedule was first released, we all knew an 8-0 start was a possibility against eight non-playoff teams from 2019. Of course, we couldn't have foreseen how dominant the Patriots would look, especially on defense, or that they would lead the NFL in points scored and allowed.
Maintain a level head about this run, though. New England has played backup quarterbacks, broken offensive lines, and abysmal coaches galore, and the team looked a little more mortal in last week's 14-point win over Cleveland.
There isn't much value in no - you're better off rolling over moneyline winnings game to game - but the schedule stiffens with the Ravens, Eagles, Cowboys, Texans, and Chiefs in consecutive contests. Keep betting the spread if you like this team, but avoid these odds.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners deserve more respect than they've gotten this year, even after trouncing the Panthers a week ago. Kyle Shanahan's group made three competent NFC teams - the Bucs, Rams, and Panthers - all look silly, and they've blown the doors off inferior competition save for the rain-stained Washington game.
What makes this team so formidable is its stellar defense. After ranking last in Pro Football Focus grades a year ago, the unit is reborn under third-year coordinator Robert Saleh, who's unleashed Nick Bosa. The offense is a perfect complement based around speed and smart play-calling. What can't this team do?
Go undefeated, for one. The 49ers still have to play Seattle twice, along with the Packers, Ravens, and Saints in consecutive weeks. There's a loss in there somewhere. But worse teams than this one have entered Weeks 16 and 17 without a loss, so I wouldn't touch 1-50 odds with a 50-foot pole.
Odds to go 0-16| TEAM | YES | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins (0-7) | 6-1 | 1-9 |
| Cincinnati Bengals (0-8) | 5-1 | 1-7 |
Miami Dolphins
A month ago, we told you to stay away from 7-2 odds on a winless 'Fins campaign. Sure enough, Miami has lost every game since but has even longer odds now thanks to a few inspired efforts in recent weeks.
These Dolphins will break through. They've covered three straight games and had a legitimate shot to win all three, and they get the nearly-as-putrid Jets at home this week. The team's offensive line is starting to come together after shipping away parts before the season; when line play improves, wins often follow.
Again, you're smarter to roll over your moneyline winning against the Dolphins than to lay a big number here - if only because Miami gets to play Cincinnati in Week 16.
Cincinnati Bengals
Here's where things get interesting. Early in the year, the Bengals seemed fun, frisky, full of potential. Now they're nothing short of a trainwreck, and they finally pulled the plug on reliable nine-year starter Andy Dalton in favor of Finley, whom the team traded up for in the fourth round.
Like Dalton, Finley has a reputation as a safe game-manager type. That's great when your roster is stocked with talent, but less so when you're always playing from behind and have arguably the worst offensive line in football. Even if Finley shows some upside, it's hard to see the next eight games as anything other than an unmitigated disaster.
The Bengals are sure to be underdogs in Week 16 at Miami, so that alone is reason to hit the "yes" prop on their 0-16 year. This team, more than any other, needs a top quarterback in the draft, and new coach Zac Taylor knows it. Bettors can only hope he doesn't ruin the fun of a winless campaign.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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