Monday Night Football betting preview: Seahawks at 49ers

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Sometimes the matchup on Monday Night Football can turn out to be a dud. This isn't one of those times. The 7-2 Seattle Seahawks travel to San Francisco on Monday to face the 8-0 49ers in a pivotal game that will go a long way in deciding the NFC West champion and playoff seeding come January.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:

Line movement

The line opened at 49ers -5.5 and sits at -6 as of Sunday afternoon. Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, said the game is generating good two-way action. The total opened at 45.5 and has moved to 47.5. Rood said bettors are hammering the over in this matchup, but expect sharps to come in on the under closer to kickoff.

Betting trends

This is the premier matchup of Week 10, pitting the MVP favorite, Russell Wilson, against the NFL's last unbeaten team. Wilson has been spectacular this season, throwing for 2,505 yards, 22 touchdowns, and only one interception. He'll face a 49ers defense that ranks first in total defense and pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 56% of their passes and averaging a mere 138 yards per game against San Fran.

No team in the NFL excels in the underdog role like the Seahawks. Seattle has covered eight straight games as a 'dog and Wilson is 24-9-2 against the spread in his career when catching points. The Seahawks have dominated this series in recent years, going 12-4 straight up and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings versus San Francisco. Seattle has also been money away from home, going 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.

The 49ers are likely to be without stud tight end George Kittle on Monday night but they're expecting to get back starting tackles Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. San Fran has been a bettor's best friend when playing Monday, covering 13 of its last 16 games in this spot. However, the 49ers haven't fared well when laying points, going just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 contests as a favorite.

Jimmy Garoppolo could be in for a big night. Despite being 7-2, Seattle's pass defense is 27th in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. The Seahawks' defense is also allowing 6.2 yards per play, which ranks 30th in the NFL, ahead of only the Cincinnati Bengals (6.6) and the Miami Dolphins (6.3).

The X-factor

Pete Carroll loves the bright lights of prime time. The Seahawks have gone 27-5-1 in prime-time games since Carroll arrived in 2010. That success has translated to the betting market, as Seattle is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 appearances on Monday Night Football.

Pick

Bettors love the over in this matchup and the trends back that up. The Seahawks have gone over in 13 of their last 18 games, while San Fran is 8-3 to the over in its last 11 contests versus teams with a winning record. Still, this 49ers defense is for real, and with the total hovering around 48, expect more money to come in on the under as we get closer to kickoff. I'd wait until Monday and hit the under, along with Seattle +6 or more. The Seahawks' record on prime time - and as an underdog - is simply too impressive to overlook.

Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.

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