Monday Night Football betting preview: Chiefs at Chargers

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The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers face off in Mexico City on Monday night. It's a big game in the AFC West with the Chiefs sitting at 6-4 and the Chargers being 4-6.

It's been a disappointing season so far for the Chargers, but a win Monday night will bring them within one game of first place with five contests remaining.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:

Line movement

Kansas City opened -3 on the neutral field, but that line has moved to -4.5 as of Sunday. Expect the public to be all over the Chiefs - as usual - with sharps waiting to hit the Chargers closer to kickoff.

The total has seen significant movement to the over. After opening at 49, the line has moved four points to 53. The public loves betting overs on Monday nights, so this number could continue to climb until sharps start buying back on the under.

Betting trends

Patrick Mahomes returned from a knee injury last week against the Tennessee Titans and picked up right where he left off, throwing for 446 yards and three scores. However, it wasn't enough, as the Chiefs' defense faltered again in a 35-32 loss. Kansas City is allowing 24 points per game and struggled in two meetings versus the Chargers last season, giving up a total of 57 points.

Can Philip Rivers take advantage of the Chiefs' leaky defense? The veteran quarterback will be 38 in December and has looked every bit of his age at times this year, throwing 14 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. Rivers has also struggled against Kansas City recently, as he's 1-9 versus the Chiefs with 11 touchdowns and 16 interceptions since 2014.

Expect the veteran to lean on his running game Monday night against a Chiefs defense that's giving up 148 yards on the ground per game. Melvin Gordon is starting to heat up, as he has 188 yards and three touchdowns in his last two contests. Gordon has 42 carries in those two games and should serve as the workhorse again.

The trends for this game favor the Chiefs. Not only have they won nine of their last 10 games outright, but they are also 7-3 against the spread (ATS) over that span. Kansas City has been strong when coming off a loss during the last two seasons, going 5-1 ATS in its last six games in that spot.

The X-factor

The Chiefs are 7-3 to the over this year, while the Chargers are polar opposites at 7-3 to the under. Los Angeles owns one of the best defenses that the explosive Chiefs offense will face all season. The Chargers come into Week 11 allowing just 318 yards (sixth) and 19.4 points (eighth) per game. That stingy unit has led to the Chargers being an under bettor's dream. The under is 10-3 in Los Angeles' last 13 division games.

Pick

The Chiefs' defense is still an issue, but Kansas City actually ranks eighth in the NFL against the pass. One reason for that is because teams are running the ball down the throat of Kansas City's Swiss cheese rush defense. Look for L.A. to follow this game plan and rely heavily on Gordon and Austin Ekeler to eat up time and keep Mahomes off the field. With the total driven up to 53, the under has value. Late sharp money could push that number down Monday, but feel comfortable going under 52 or higher.

Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.

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