NFL MVP odds: Lamar Jackson takes lead in tight race
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It's been coming for weeks, and after another sensational performance, it's official: Lamar Jackson is the MVP favorite.
He's not ahead by much. The Ravens quarterback is 3-2 to take home the award, narrowly edging out previous favorite Russell Wilson (7-4) in what appears to be a two-man race in the final six weeks of the year. The next-closest candidate is Dak Prescott at 7-1.
In a showdown with fellow MVP candidate Deshaun Watson, Jackson was prolific, throwing for 222 yards and four touchdowns - his second four-touchdown performance of the year - and adding another 86 yards on the ground in a 41-7 blowout win over the Texans on Sunday. The victory catapulted the Ravens to third on the Super Bowl oddsboard amid a six-game winning streak.
Before Sunday, Jackson had already proven himself as a passer. He's only the second quarterback since 1950 with two perfect passer ratings in the same year, and he owns the two highest QBR grades this season and two of the 10 best since 2006. He's also on pace to break Michael Vick's record for rushing yards by a quarterback, in part because of runs like these:
LAMAR. JACKSON.
- NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2019
That's it. That's the tweet. @lj_era8
: CBS
: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app
Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/414bcK9I5b pic.twitter.com/bcKITPODez
LAMARVELOUS. pic.twitter.com/FdaGebKcIP
- Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 17, 2019
Sunday's win added to an impressive list of guys Jackson has outdueled this year, from Watson to Tom Brady to former front-runner Wilson, who was on a bye week as Jackson stole the MVP lead.
Wilson won't go down easy. The Seahawks quarterback has led his team to an 8-2 record, matching the Ravens, with a win over the then-undefeated 49ers thanks to Wilson's late-game heroics. His near-costly interception in overtime was only his second on the year, while his 23 touchdowns and 7% touchdown percentage per attempt lead all signal-callers.
Here are the updated MVP odds for the top-10 candidates, with a note on a few players who could still make a run at the award besides Jackson and Wilson:
Odds shorter than 100-1
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 3-2 |
| Russell Wilson | 7-4 |
| Dak Prescott | 7-1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 12-1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 20-1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 20-1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 20-1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 20-1 |
| Michael Thomas | 40-1 |
| Derek Carr | 60-1 |
If you think Dak Prescott doesn't belong in the MVP conversation, you haven't been checking the numbers. The Cowboys pivot leads the NFL in passing yards (3,221) and is tied for second in touchdowns (21) and QBR (77.8). His team's record (6-4) can't match Jackson's or Wilson's, but he leads the NFL by a wide margin in expected points added (EPA), which is essentially how much an individual contributes to their club's success.
The biggest knock on Prescott might be the narrative around him. He's leading the league's most efficient offense, per PFF and DVOA, but not in a way that arrests voters' attention. If he pulls off a few "wow" moments in the final few weeks, and the front-runners stumble even a bit, 7-1 odds will feel silly.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (12-1)Aaron Rodgers' candidacy has always felt forced this year, even when he was briefly the MVP favorite. He's ninth in passing yards (2,718), 11th in touchdowns (17), and 14th in QBR (56.5), and his per-game numbers fall short of his own standard from MVP years past.
The Packers' 8-2 record is doing some heavy lifting, as is his low interception total, so maybe he's got a shot if both trends continue. Yet voters already have a similar choice in Wilson, who boasts an identical record and interception mark but has better stats elsewhere. When parsing through a crowded field, don't take the lesser option of what's already available.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (20-1)The four players bunched together at 20-1 all have major flaws in their candidacy: Patrick Mahomes missed two games, Watson has been a lesser version of Jackson - as evidenced last week - and Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey aren't doing enough to win in a quarterback-centric year.
The last 16 MVP winners have combined to miss one game, so that doesn't help Mahomes' case. Yet, miraculously, the Chiefs signal-caller still ranks in the top five in passing yards (2,808), touchdowns (19), and QBR (77), and ranks first by a mile in adjusted net yards per attempt (9.03), which measures a quarterback's effectiveness per throw. He's still the same Mahomes who won MVP last year, and a stellar late-season run could easily cash a 20-1 ticket.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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