NFL Coach of the Year odds: Shanahan favored over Harbaugh, Tomlin
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One of the more wide-open NFL seasons in recent memory has fittingly produced a wide-open field for the AP Coach of the Year award. But past winners can help us narrow the board a bit.
Every winner since 1991 has finished with at least 10 wins, save for Colts interim head coach Bruce Arians in 2012 (9-3 in 12 games). Six of the last nine winners have won at least 12 games, and Arians' 2012 season was on that pace. This year's winner will almost assuredly hail from a top playoff contender.
He's also likely to come from a vastly improved club. Of the last 15 winners, 12 coached a team coming off a losing season the year before. The outliers? Bill Belichick (2007, 2010), who lost zero and two games in those respective seasons, and Arians (2014), who led the Cardinals to the playoffs for the first time in five years despite playing second- and third-string quarterbacks.
Here are the odds to win AP Coach of the Year, with five interesting names highlighted below:
| COACH | TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Shanahan | San Francisco 49ers | 2-1 |
| Sean McDermott | Buffalo Bills | 4-1 |
| John Harbaugh | Baltimore Ravens | 19-4 (+475) |
| Mike Tomlin | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5-1 |
| Matt LaFleur | Green Bay Packers | 10-1 |
| Pete Carroll | Seattle Seahawks | 10-1 |
| Andy Reid | Kansas City Chiefs | 14-1 |
| Sean Payton | New Orleans Saints | 14-1 |
| Bill Belichick | New England Patriots | 20-1 |
| Matt Nagy | Chicago Bears | 33-1 |
Shanahan opened as a 10-1 favorite this summer and would follow the trend of recent winners: the 49ers won four games last season and have already won 11 this year with three games left. He also fits the prevailing narrative as an offensive innovator and rising star a la 2017 winner Sean McVay and 2018 winner Matt Nagy.
If San Francisco finishes with the NFL's best record, it'll be hard to deny him the award. However, the Niners' loss to the Ravens could be a factor if it's Shanahan versus Harbaugh for the hardware.
John Harbaugh (19-4)Baltimore won the division last year and hasn't had a losing season since 2015, so the restoration angle that most coaches bank on doesn't apply here. Yet the highs the Ravens have reached this year rival those of some of the best teams in NFL history, which should count for something.
Offensive coordinator Greg Roman gets much of the credit for Lamar Jackson's MVP-caliber ascension, but Harbaugh deserves praise for trusting his dynamic quarterback this offseason and building a roster around him. If Shanahan's team falters down the stretch, Harbaugh is an easy choice.
Mike Tomlin (5-1)It feels as if Tomlin is the media's choice for the award. He's helped guide an injury-riddled offense with a former practice squad quarterback to the brink of the playoffs and has extended his streak of consecutive seasons without a losing record to 13. That alone is enough to look hard at his 5-1 price.
That streak conflicts with the turnaround narrative, and Tomlin's team might not be good enough when compared to recent winners. Still, there's an obvious precedent: Arians won in 2014 by leading the 11-5 Cardinals to the playoffs despite significant QB attrition. The Steelers (8-5) might need a similar record to give Tomlin a chance, which would require wins over the Bills, Jets, and Ravens to end the year.
Matt LaFleur (10-1)Six of the last 13 winners have been first-year head coaches, including the last two. Can LaFleur continue that trend? His Packers have registered 10 wins after a tumultuous 6-9-1 campaign in 2018, and they've got an outside chance at the NFC's top seed.
LaFleur might need the top spot to build his case, as his team has folded in key moments and has actually been more impressive on defense than on offense, which is where LaFleur's influence is greatest. The possibility of a 13-3 finish makes his 10-1 odds intriguing but likely not enough to bet.
Sean Payton (14-1)We're really giving Payton this good of a price after the Saints survived the Teddy Bridgewater era with an undefeated record? Payton's ability to construct one of the league's best offenses through adversity - from building a competent offense around Bridgewater to his creative usage of Taysom Hill - made him an early front-runner and should place him firmly in the running for his second Coach of the Year award.
The Saints' loss to San Francisco dealt a massive blow to Payton's case over Shanahan, but New Orleans has three very winnable games to end the year, starting with a prime-time spot Monday. There's too much value here to ignore.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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