2020 world juniors betting preview
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There's something inherently special about the World Junior Championship.
The once overlooked yearly showcase of the best young players in the country has blossomed into a tradition unlike any other. For two weeks, the world stops to watch the stars of tomorrow in junior hockey's most prestigious international tournament.
The 2020 edition begins in the Czech Republic on Boxing Day, the first time in three years the tourney is being held outside of North America.
| Country | Odds |
|---|---|
| Canada | 5-2 |
| USA | 7-2 |
| Russia | 4-1 |
| Sweden | 9-2 |
| Finland | 11-2 |
| Czech Republic | 14-1 |
| Switzerland | 50-1 |
| Slovakia | 66-1 |
| Germany | 100-1 |
| Kazakhstan | 150-1 |
Canada is priced as the betting favorite to claim gold but the gap between it, the United States, and Russia, is marginal at best.
Of the three favorites, Canada was the only country not to medal at the 2019 edition of the tournament, losing to eventual champions Finland in the quarterfinals. It was the first time ever that the Great White North failed to medal on home soil.
Out for revenge in 2020, Canada enters the tournament with a ridiculously talented group of forwards that includes seven first-round picks and the likely top two picks in the 2020 NHL Draft, Alexis Lafreniere and Quinton Byfield. From top to bottom, there isn't a forward group in the tournament that can match what Canada will bring to Ostrava.
Russia is armed with a deep forward pool with 2019 world juniors scoring leader Grigori Denisenko and Vancouver Canucks prospect Vasili Podkolzin leading the charge offensively. However, it lacks the same depth of star power that Canada possesses. USA will rely heavily on Wisconsin teammates Alex Turcotte and Cole Caufield, but with the Americans returning just one forward from 2019, they're a significant step behind Canada and Russia on offense in terms of experience.
What the Americans lack up front, they make up for on the blue line. Returning defensemen K'Andre Miller and Mattias Samuelsson will lead an impressive, albeit undersized, group on the back end, with a wealth of skating and offensive ability. The unit should provide an important helping hand to a forward group that's about to be thrown into the fire.
Russia will rely on Montreal Canadiens prospect Alexander Romanov, who was named the best defenseman at the 2019 tournament, to carry its blue line. Romanov, who is capable of taking over a game, might be one of the most important players at the tournament. He'll be asked to log a ton of minutes and play in just about every situation for a Russian team that lacks depth on the back end. Daniil Zhuravlyov is a power-play specialist, but otherwise, Russia's options are a bit underwhelming.
The Canadians, on the other hand, will have one of the most experienced defensive units in the Czech Republic. Goaltending is the only thing that can hold Canada back. Olivier Rodrigue is having a terrific season with the QMJHL's Moncton Wildcats, but there's no clear-cut starter in goal for the Canadians. As such, the most important position on the ice is Canada's biggest question mark.
That's where the USA and Russia hold a significant edge over the Canucks. Spencer Knight, the 13th pick in the 2019 draft, is having another stellar campaign and should provide the Americans with the excellent netminding they've become accustomed to.
Russia will likely turn to Yaroslav Askarov, a consensus top-10 pick in 2020. The Omsk native is looking to become the first 17-year-old to start for the Russians at the tournament since Andrei Vasilevskiy in 2012. Askarov led his country to first place at the 2019 Hlinka Gretzky Cup and is set to become the first goalie selected inside the top 10 of the NHL draft since Carey Price in 2005. He's performed admirably at every level for both club and country and should have no problem claiming the starting job despite his age.
Pricing Canada as favorites is justifiable, though the Canadians have been derailed by bad goaltending in the past at the world juniors. If Rodrigue carries his excellent junior campaign into this tournament, there might be no stopping Canada. The USA is a much scarier side to back given its lack of experience, though Knight could mask a lot of its issues. Russia possesses high-end talent and offers terrific value at 4-1 as it aims to end a lengthy drought at this tournament, having not won gold since 2011.
The restAlways the bridesmaid, Sweden has finished as runners-up 11 times, and have won gold just twice in the history of the tournament. The Swedes have a ton of talent up front, including a pair of highly touted 2020 prospects in Alexander Holtz and Lucas Raymond. Their defensive corps is loaded with skill, highlighted by Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Rasmus Sandin, but the unit was dealt a blow with the news that Adam Boqvist won't be released by the Chicago Blackhawks to join the Swedes in the Czech Republic.
The gap between Sweden's high-end talent and its depth players is fairly large, and that's a big part of the reason why the club generally seems to falter in the latter stages of the tournament. There are also question marks in goal, but you could do worse at 9-2.
It almost feels wrong to include the defending champions among "the rest," as Finland looks to become the first nation to win back-to-back gold medals since Canada's run of five straight golds between 2005 and 2009.
Finland brings back an exceptional roster loaded with NHL draft picks and 2020 eligible prospects. There's no question this team can compete with anyone, but the question is whether Colorado Avalanche prospect Justus Annunen - who's piecing together a terrific first half of the season with Karpat - can replicate the success Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen had in goal for the Fins last year. If Annunen can fill the void, then 11-2 odds are criminal and need to be scooped up.
Being placed in Group A also works in Finland's favor, as the club avoids Canada, Russia, and the USA until the quarterfinals at the earliest. If the Fins top their group, they likely won't see any of those three teams until the semifinal.
As the host nation, the Czech Republic can't be disregarded, but the fact that it's playing the tournament on home ice was certainly baked into the odds. The Czechs haven't medaled at the world juniors since 2005 and their roster pales in comparison to the nations above them when it comes to elite talent, depth, and experience.
Switzerland offers the best value on the board at 50-1. The Swiss were a goal away from beating Canada last year and stunned Sweden 2-0 in the quarterfinals, en route to a fourth-place finish. They're expected to return as many as ten players from their 2019 team, providing them with a dangerous blend of talent and experience.
Beyond the Swiss, there are no real candidates to shock the world and claim gold. Slovakia's had a pair of third-place finishes at the tournament, while neither Germany or Kazakhstan have ever managed a podium finish.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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