Saturday NFL betting preview: Bills, Bucs could surprise as 'dogs

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For the first time all season, there's no Thursday Night Football. It's replaced with the inaugural Saturday contests of the campaign, with the game of the week in the AFC and one of the best from the NFC among the trifecta.

Here's a betting preview of all three games that will kick off Week 16:

Houston Texans (-3, 50) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This matchup would have been a heck of a lot more fun two weeks ago before the Buccaneers lost star wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injury. Even so, the team put up 38 points on the Lions' lousy defense thanks to a three-touchdown effort from also-ran receiver Breshad Perriman.

The Texans' pass defense hasn't been much better than Detroit's, even after a solid outing last week against the Tennessee Titans. Can it corral Perriman, who did most of his damage on simple go routes? On the other side, the Texans are expected to have their full complement of receivers, the health of which has often determined the team's performances throughout the year.

This could get interesting if Tampa Bay's top-ranked rush defense per DVOA is able to stifle a deceptively run-heavy Texans offense. Houston doesn't need to win this game to capture the division and is facing an uphill battle for seeding, despite tiebreakers against the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots. The over is the safer play here between pass-heavy offenses and bereft secondaries, though Tampa Bay is a sneaky underdog.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5, 37)

With the Bills and Patriots squaring off in 20-degree weather in Foxborough, this one has under written all over it.

Buffalo is 6-0 to the under in games with a total of 40 or below, a spot that has gone 16-5 to the under in all action this year. The Bills are also 5-0-1 against the spread in that spot and 6-0-1 ATS in road contests this year, and their elite secondary should cause problems for a Patriots offense that can't find anything downfield.

Near-touchdown favorites have done well in low-total games in recent years, but this line feels inflated for a New England team that has shown us almost nothing encouraging during its last six games. It's worth trying to get +7 with points at a premium, but the Bills are still a solid underdog play at +6.5.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)

The Rams' offensive renaissance was fun while it lasted, though it always felt a bit misleading considering the outbursts came against the inconsistent defenses of the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks. Los Angeles was thoroughly dominated last week against the Dallas Cowboys, so it's a bit surprising the Rams are getting less than a touchdown against the 49ers, who desperately need this game to compete for the No. 1 seed.

Week 15 was the ultimate letdown spot for the Niners, who outlasted the New Orleans Saints in an epic 48-46 road win before getting tripped up by the Atlanta Falcons at home. Teams coming off a win in which both sides score at least 40 points had lost nine of their last 13 games entering last week, so don't read too much into San Francisco's subpar performance.

If Los Angeles keeps this close, it'll be because of its defense, which ranks sixth against the run in DVOA. It's easy after that Saints game to forget how dominant the 49ers' defense is, which is likely pushing this total a few points too high. Play the under, but also consider San Fran's side in this divisional mismatch.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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