NFL Week 16 player props: Believe in Brissett's upside vs. Panthers
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The player prop market is a hot one for bettors. While standard spread and total bets account for an entire game, individual props focus on specific matchups.
Here are five bets to consider for Week 16:
Jacoby Brissett over 236.5 passing yardsI'm not entirely sure what Colts head coach Frank Reich means when he says he wants to add a "couple subtleties" to the offensive playbook, but I'm all ears. Officially eliminated from playoff contention, Indianapolis might pull out all the stops Sunday. And what better time to experiment with some new ideas than at home against a defense that's dead last in explosive rush rate and No. 21 against the pass? If the offense is, in fact, more lax and Brissett has a longer leash, there's a ton of upside on this prop.
Tyler Boyd over 5.5 receptionsCincinnati-Miami might not be the must-watch game of the early slate, but there could be a green light to a couple of over-based props in this one. I'd target Boyd, who, speaking of targets, has seen 34 combined over the last four games. He gets the Dolphins' defense, which is second-worst in the league at allowing production to WR1s as well as against receivers in the slot, where Boyd spends more than 56% of his snaps.
Courtland Sutton over 74.5 receiving yardsSutton's developed immediate chemistry with starting quarterback Drew Lock. The Broncos receiver saw 22 total targets over the last three games, including a season-high 10 last week against the Chiefs. Detroit's been embarrassed by opposing WR1s all season long, ranking No. 27 in production allowed. Sutton should also find some success down the field against the Lions' secondary, which sits No. 29 in explosive pass rate allowed.
Terry McLaurin over 69.5 receiving yardsMcLaurin got off to a hot start, went quiet for roughly a month during the middle of the season, and is back on the upswing. It's clear there's a rapport between McLaurin and Redskins quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who spent their collegiate tenure together at Ohio State. As Haskins has grown more comfortable under center, McLaurin's been the primary benefactor. He's averaged more than 14 yards per catch in three of the last four games and has a 20-plus-yard catch in four of the last five. I think you'll see McLaurin have a huge day against the Giants' secondary, which ranks No. 30 in pass defense DVOA and No. 28 in explosive pass rate allowed.
Tyler Lockett longest reception over 23.5 yardsJosh Gordon added another body to the Seahawks' receiving corps, but it didn't help Lockett. After Gordon was brought into the fold, Lockett nabbed just eight receptions over a four-game span before exploding for eight against the Panthers last week. Now, with Gordon out of the fray, I think it's time to buy back on Lockett, who's facing the Cardinals' depleted secondary at home.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKoIodziej.
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