Super Bowl LIV MVP odds: Look beyond Mahomes for best value
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More people will wager on the Super Bowl than any other sporting event in the United States this year. One bet that draws the most attention is who wins Most Valuable Player. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes opened as the clear favorite but there are some other interesting options on the board that offer more value to bettors.
Here are the odds for who'll be named Super Bowl LIV MVP:
| Player | Position | Team | Odd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | Chiefs | EVEN |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | 49ers | 7-2 |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | 49ers | 8-1 |
| Damien Williams | RB | Chiefs | 12-1 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | Chiefs | 16-1 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | Chiefs | 16-1 |
| George Kittle | TE | 49ers | 16-1 |
| Nick Bosa | DE | 49ers | 20-1 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 49ers | 30-1 |
| Sammy Watkins | WR | Chiefs | 40-1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | WR | 49ers | 50-1 |
| Tevin Coleman | RB | 49ers | 50-1 |
| Mecole Hardman | WR | Chiefs | 50-1 |
| Richard Sherman | CB | 49ers | 80-1 |
| Fred Warner | LB | 49ers | 80-1 |
| Chris Jones | DT | Chiefs | 80-1 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | S | Chiefs | 80-1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | WR | 49ers | 100-1 |
| DeMarcus Robinson | WR | Chiefs | 100-1 |
| Robbie Gould | K | 49ers | 100-1 |
| Harrison Butker | K | Chiefs | 100-1 |
| Frank Clark | DE | Chiefs | 100-1 |
| Darwin Thompson | RB | Chiefs | 200-1 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | FB | 49ers | 200-1 |
| Field | Any | Any | 14-1 |
The key to increasing your odds in winning a bet like Super Bowl MVP is to first eliminate the players that have no chance of cashing. Neither kicker is going to win MVP, especially on two of the NFL's top-five scoring offenses. Sorry, Robbie Gould and Harrison Butker, but you're both out. A fullback also has no chance, so, see ya, Kyle Juszczyk.
Ten defensive players have won Super Bowl MVP, and while a pass rusher like Nick Bosa isn't a bad bet at 20-1, we can cross off interior defensive linemen. Only one defensive tackle has won Super Bowl MVP - Randy White back in 1978 - and even then he had to share the award with teammate Harvey Martin. Apologies to Chris Jones, but he's eliminated. And backup running backs? No thanks. Cross off Darwin Thompson and Tevin Coleman.
Now that we've narrowed down the field, it's time to look at which team will win the Super Bowl. If the Chiefs raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy, Mahomes will very likely be named MVP. Julian Edelman won the award last year in a low-scoring game due to Tom Brady's below-average performance. However, the odds are slim that the Chiefs come out victorious despite a subpar game from Mahomes.
The better value is on the 49ers' side. As we saw in the NFC Championship Game, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't need to put up big numbers for San Francisco's offense to be successful. The 49ers beat Green Bay 37-20 despite Garoppolo completing just six passes for 77 yards. This gives players like Bosa, Raheem Mostert (8-1), and Deebo Samuel (30-1) value in a game where the spread is basically even.
However, the best bet to win Super Bowl MVP is ...
George Kittle (16-1)Kittle has been quiet so far in the playoffs. He's been dealing with a sore ankle, and with the 49ers gashing the Packers' defense on the ground for close to 300 yards, his stellar blocking took center stage last week. Given Kittle's talent and the matchup, though, he's loaded with value at 16-1.
The Chiefs have struggled to defend the tight end position this season, allowing an average of 6.1 receptions and 60.9 yards per game. Those numbers put Kansas City in the bottom 10 when it comes to defending the position, which is even more alarming considering the Chiefs didn't face many quality tight ends this year. The best tight end Kansas City saw this season was Oakland's Darren Waller, who ripped the Chiefs' defense for 13 catches and 163 yards in two games. Waller is a good player, but he's not Kittle.
The other thing to watch for in this game is how Kansas City will try to defend Kittle without safety Juan Thornhill. The Chiefs didn't miss Thornhill in their playoff wins over Houston and Tennessee after losing him to a knee injury in Week 17, but his absence will be felt as they try to defend the NFL's most athletic tight end.
Kittle saw at least eight targets in half of his games this season, and Garoppolo will need to complete more than six passes to keep up with the Chiefs' offense. No tight end has ever won Super Bowl MVP, but Kittle has the talent, matchup, and projected volume to end that streak. He's worth a long look at 16-1.
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.
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