NHL Monday betting preview: Plenty of short prices to target
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The NHL returns following a four-day break for All-Star Weekend that felt like an eternity.
But meaningful hockey is back, and with 10 weeks left in the regular season, every game starts to become a bit more meaningful.
Before we dive into Monday's games, here's an embarrassing recap of my degenerate weekend betting on the All-Star Game.
GOATs and scapegoatsThe NHL may have taken a break over the weekend, but I refused to follow suit. Betting on the All-Star Game is as minus-expected value (-EV) as it gets, but I just couldn't help myself. In doing my research, I came across some info that I felt gave Team Central an edge heading into the three-on-three tournament, and I ran with it.
I always said the NHL All-Star Game was a complete joke and you'd have to hate money to bet on it.
- Alex Moretto (@alexjmoretto) January 24, 2020
Well, I'm doing research for an article and I've just convinced myself to place a needlessly large wager on the Central Division at +240. I need help.
Well, San Jose Sharks forward Tomas Hertl scored four goals, Edmonton Oilers star Leon Draisaitl potted a hat trick, and Team Central collapsed in front of its home fans in St. Louis, losing 10-5 in the tournament opener to Team Pacific, which scored the game's final five goals. I was livid, so naturally, I chased.
Rarely do these situations have happy endings, but I'm pleased to announce I live bet Team Pacific in the final at +275 after Team Atlantic opened up an early 2-0 lead. Team Pacific eventually battled back, and Hertl, who was an absolute assassin during All-Star Weekend, returned the favor after shafting me in the tournament opener, scoring the game-winner with a couple of minutes to go. My losses were recouped, but I'm still coming to grips with the fact that I bet unnecessary amounts of money on a game of pond hockey.
Monday's betsDallas Stars (+115)
No team in the Western Conference has a better record since Oct. 18 than the Dallas Stars (26-10-3), who are also 15-5-1 at home over that span. And, for as well as the Tampa Bay Lightning have been playing, they've been a mixed bag away from home. The Bolts have lost two of their last three on the road to a pair of much weaker teams in the Minnesota Wild and New Jersey Devils, and have just one road win over the past three months against clubs currently in the top three of their respective divisions.
Now they travel to take on a Stars team that's incredibly hard to beat on home ice, with goaltender Ben Bishop getting a shot against his former club. It's rare to get value with Dallas on home ice, but it's present here given the quality of the team's opposition, and it would be foolish not to take advantage.
Vancouver Canucks (+110)
We can apply the same logic we used for the Stars on the Canucks. Vancouver is one of the league's best teams on home ice, winning eight games in a row at Rogers Arena and 11 of 13 since Dec. 1. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Blues have lost four in a row on the road and six of their last nine. Their only wins over that stretch have come against a few of the weaker teams in the Western Conference - the Sharks, Los Angeles Kings, and Winnipeg Jets. Of those nine road games, five of them came against teams with 57 points or more, and they've posted an 0-5 record in those contests. Trust the Canucks on home ice.
Bonus play: Vancouver has a tendency to play a lot of close games when the league's best teams visit Rogers Arena. On home ice this season, the Canucks have gone to overtime against the Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche, Washington Capitals, and the Blues. Betting on this game to be tied after 60 minutes at +300 is hardly the worst bet in the world.
Best betToronto Maple Leafs (-105)
Despite underwhelming results, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Nashville Predators remain two of the most overvalued teams in the NHL by oddsmakers. This is a huge game to kick off the stretch run, with both clubs mired in a slump, but Toronto's struggles have largely come down to its play on home ice. On the road, the Leafs are 10-4 under Sheldon Keefe, including a very impressive 7-1 record against Western Conference teams. They're also on a 5-1 run away from Scotiabank Arena.
A road trip might be what Nashville needs right about now. The Predators are 5-11 straight up (SU) at home since the end of October and are on a 2-5 run in Nashville to Eastern Conference teams, beating only the Devils and Buffalo Sabres while losing to clubs that include the Lightning, Pittsburgh Penguins, Boston Bruins, and Florida Panthers. The Leafs may be overrated, but they're a lot closer to that second group than the first one, and the Predators are too much of a mess to trust right now.
Trend of the nightThe Washington Capitals have won 13 of their last 15 games over the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre.
The Habs have averaged just under two goals per game (1.93) over that span, while the Caps have averaged 3.67. Montreal is also 4-13 SU since mid-November, while Washington is 18-6-1 on the road this season. However, Alex Ovechkin is suspended for this matchup as a result of skipping the All-Star Game, and he's been a Canadiens killer in his career. Ovechkin's recorded 11 goals and five assists in 11 games at the Bell Centre over the past seven seasons. Avoid this contest with Ovechkin out and Montreal desperate.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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