Article 4YJF9 Best Super Bowl LIV game props: How many Chiefs will record a catch?

Best Super Bowl LIV game props: How many Chiefs will record a catch?

by
Alex Kolodziej
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After endorsing props in the cross-sport and novelty markets, it almost feels weird to dive into the basic game props for this upcoming Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. Of the hundreds of props being offered, these are the most traditional.

Here are the best ones to consider:

O/U 3.5 first-half touchdowns

I've tied this into a previous cross-sport prop, advocating Houston Rockets point guard James Harden's point total -7.5 over the first-half total between the Chiefs and Niners. Despite all the speed and big-play ability both offenses possess, I can't help but feel like this'll be a feeling-out process early. San Francisco's run-heavy approach should keep quarterback Patrick Mahomes on the sideline and I believe if there's any outpouring of points, it comes later rather than sooner.

Pick: Under (-110)

Team to score longest TD

Kansas City's unsurprisingly the chalk here, considering the amount of threats at wide receiver that can hit a home run play. However, the 49ers are one of the few defenses that can counter this, as they finished second in the league in explosive pass rate success allowed. I don't think there's a huge discrepancy here between this prop, hence taking the plus-money play on San Francisco.

Pick: 49ers (+110)

O/U 7.5 Chiefs players to record a reception

Mahomes has had no trouble distributing the ball this season. Eight different receivers recorded at least one catch as recent as the divisional round against Houston, but I have a tough time believing there'll be enough mismatches against San Francisco's secondary to get this one home. Tight end Travis Kelce, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and running back Damien Williams are essentially locks to bring at least one ball down. But after that, it gets a bit tricky.

Mecole Hardman has been held to one catch or fewer in eight of the last 10; Demarcus Robinson has also been limited to a single grab in five of the last seven. For this to hit, Kansas City needs just about everyone to get involved, including a wild card such as Blake Bell or Darwin Thompson. I'd side with the under.

Pick: Under (-165)

O/U 102.5 total yards of combined TDs

As someone who doesn't necessarily agree with all the over steam, this is a nice correlated play on the combined total of touchdown yardage. San Francisco's aforementioned success in limiting explosive plays certainly helps, and Kansas City's not too far behind, ranking seventh in explosive pass rate success allowed.

When Hardman takes the opening kick 100 yards to the house, you know who to thank.

Pick: Under (-110)

First team to 10 points

Only Baltimore and New England were better in first-quarter scoring than San Francisco, which put up 6.7 points in the opening frame this season. Kansas City was still respectable at No. 10 in the NFL (5.4), but the offense has had a real tough time getting things going of late, averaging just 3.3 points in the first over the last three games. In the race to 10, take the 49ers.

Pick: 49ers (-105)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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