Heads or tails: The most popular Super Bowl prop
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It's 6:17 p.m. EST. You just polished off a second helping of hot wings and the mood at your Super Bowl party is upbeat, if not enjoyable. Pleasantries are exchanged and conversation is still tolerable. Enjoy it while it lasts.
The commercial break ends and FOX cameras pan to Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. Here we go. With an almost reassuring abrasiveness, Buck welcomes you to Super Bowl LIV. The mood shifts as chatter wanes and people settle into their seats. The game is mere minutes away and a fleeting moment of excitement is swept away by an influx of nerves. An insignificant piece of metal is consuming your mind.
Betting on the Super Bowl coin toss has become as much of a tradition as betting on the game itself. There's a pageantry surrounding the otherwise straightforward proceeding which captivates professionals and casuals alike to partake in what is as legitimate a 50-50 bet as there is.
It's four seconds of pure, unbridled exhilaration, from the moment the coin is flicked into the air to the moment the winning side is announced. It's the sort of excitement you just can't get from betting Raheem Mostert under 71.5 rushing yards. It comes and goes within the blink of an eye, and it's that rush of blood to the head that has made betting the result of the coin toss so commonplace.
Sportsbook @PointsBetUSA has 306 different Super Bowl betting markets up, with more to come. The most popular at this point? The coin flip "by a good margin."
- David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) January 23, 2020
52% of the bets are on heads, but 70% of handle is on tails.
No reports of sharp money.
The national anthem is finished in the blink of an eye, much to the dismay of your buddy Vinny who had the over. Who bets on the anthem, anyway? His Demi Lovato bashing quickly ends as captains from both teams march toward midfield. This is it. This is where your big night commences. Lets go.
You casually announce to the room you have a hefty wager on heads. Angelo scoffs, reminding you tails never fails. A few others nod in agreement. They're also on tails. At this point you feel like an idiot for forgetting the saying that's been ingrained in your head since third grade, but you truck on. "They're the idiots," you assure yourself. You did your research.
You know this year's coin, according to nflshop.com, is made of 100% metal, with a 1.5-inch diameter. The coin "is carefully struck of fine silver plate and selectively flash plated with 24kt gold." You even went so far as to buy a limited edition replica, and flipped it 1,000 times - 671 came up heads. Trust the process.
You also know this is the 54th Super Bowl and heads has come up 25 times in the previous 53, compared to 28 for tails. Clearly, heads is due. Tails has also come up in five of the past six Super Bowls. It's time to put an end to tails' tyranny.
As referee Bill Vinovich appears on the screen, you're forced to down a few Tums. You can't definitively say at this point whether it's the stress or the hot wings causing this heartburn. You do your best to calm yourself by going over the numbers again in your head.
The last three times San Francisco was in the Super Bowl it came up heads, but tails was the winner in its first three appearances. Is the 49ers' logo designed in such a way that the weight distribution of these new coins make them more likely to land heads? Kansas City offers no help. The Chiefs' two Super Bowl appearances saw heads and tails each come up once.
Nothing is making sense any more and all rational thinking flies out the window as Vinovich gets the formalities underway:
"Captains, congratulations and welcome to Super Bowl 54. Tonight, we're using a commemorative coin to honor both teams, our great game, our great fans, and the great city of Miami."
Come on, come on, come on, come on. Why is he talking so slow?
"The two team emblems will represent heads, the Super Bowl LIV logo will represent tails," he continues. "San Francisco, you have been designated the visiting team, what is your call?"
The call is "heads" and Vinovich hands the coin over to the guest flipper. This is the moment of truth. The world watches on in restless anticipation. As the coin lifts into the air, so too does your stomach into your throat. It's happening in slow motion. What gravity?
Finally, it settles.
"And it is tails!" Vinovich exclaims.
"F---!" you explode. "OF F------ COURSE IT IS."
Vinovich continues, his voice now muffled by the rest of the room: "Kansas City has won the toss and has chosen to defer."
"TOLD YOU," Angelo yells. It takes every ounce of restraint not to leap over the table and wrap your hands around that arrogant prick's neck. Down two units and the game hasn't even begun, while the rest of the room celebrates. Oh what could have been.
Come Sunday, despite the completely unpredictable nature of the bet, whether you want to admit it or not, we're all going to abide by tradition and wager on the coin toss. I know you're going to, and you know I am. Heck, I've written 1,000 words about it, how could I not?
I'm not going to pretend to have an edge or try to cap it, but I will offer you a piece of professional advice. Go with your gut, unless your gut says heads, because that's what I wagered on and I've never won a coin toss bet in my life.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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