Breaking down the remaining schedules of East's playoff hopefuls
The All-Star break has come and gone, and from now until early April, it's going to be a dogfight for several clubs to get inside the playoff cutline.
With that in mind, let's break down the remaining schedules of the teams battling for position in the Eastern Conference. Note that the NHL altered its tiebreaking procedure this season, making regulation wins the No. 1 deciding factor for teams deadlocked in the standings.
Playoff odds are courtesy of Money Puck and change every night, while average points percentage indicates the quality of opponents each team is slated to face for the rest of the season. The higher the rank, the more difficult the schedule.
Here's a look at the standings entering play Wednesday.
| Team (Record) | Points | Reg. wins | Seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capitals (34-11-5) | 73 | 25 | M1 |
| Penguins (31-14-5) | 67 | 21 | M2 |
| Islanders (29-15-5) | 63 | 19 | M3 |
| Bruins (29-10-12) | 70 | 26 | A1 |
| Lightning (29-15-5) | 63 | 24 | A2 |
| Panthers (28-16-5) | 61 | 23 | A3 |
| Blue Jackets (27-16-8) | 62 | 21 | WC1 |
| Hurricanes (29-18-3) | 61 | 21 | WC2 |
| Flyers (27-17-6) | 60 | 18 | NA |
| Maple Leafs (26-17-7) | 59 | 21 | NA |
(A = Atlantic Division; M = Metropolitan Division; WC = wild card)
The Western Conference standings breakdown will be published Jan. 30.
Tampa Bay LightningCurrent playoff odds: 92.6%
Remaining home-road split: 17-16
Avg. opponent point % (league rank) : .543 (26th)
It took a while for the Lightning to wake up, but they're rolling, with a 17-6-2 record since Dec. 1. Tampa Bay has just two fewer regulation wins than the Atlantic-leading Boston Bruins with two games in hand. At this point, the Bolts look like a lock to make the playoffs.
Crucial stretch: Tampa has 14 games in the first 28 days of March, including two back-to-backs and a trip to Western Canada. Staying fresh for the postseason will be key.
New York Islanders
Len Redkoles / National Hockey League / GettyCurrent playoff odds: 70.8%
Remaining home-road split: 15-17
Avg. opponent point %: .539 (29th)
After a hot start, the Islanders find themselves much closer to a wild-card spot than the top of the division. New York owns at least one game in hand on all the teams below it, but a 9-8-3 record over the past 20 games indicates Barry Trotz's group needs to get back on track.
Crucial stretch: The Isles head straight into the fire after their break, with games against the Canucks, Stars, Lightning, Capitals, and Flyers between Feb. 1-11.
Columbus Blue JacketsCurrent playoff odds: 63.5%
Remaining home-road split: 14-17
Avg. opponent point %: .565 (12th)
The Blue Jackets are undoubtedly the biggest surprise in the mix. After losing more talent than any other team this past offseason, Columbus is threatening to earn a top-three spot in the Metro, largely thanks to the league's second-ranked five-on-five save percentage (.932). The magic could fade quickly, however - Columbus has the 12th-most difficult remaining schedule in terms of points percentage and 17 games away from home, where the team's gone 11-7-6 this season.
Crucial stretch: A home-and-home against the Flyers on Feb. 18 and 20 will have massive implications in the wild-card race.
Florida PanthersCurrent playoff odds: 78.3%
Remaining home-road split: 15-18
Avg. opponent point %: .550 (22nd)
Now in the midst of their bye, the Panthers entered the break on an 8-2 run, looking much more like the club many expected to see this season. Florida is only two points and one regulation win behind Tampa Bay, but with no more matchups versus the Cats' in-state rival, Toronto is the team to circle. The Panthers and Maple Leafs square off three more times, including Feb. 3, when Florida will have two games in hand and a big opportunity to potentially pad its cushion for the No. 3 seed in the Atlantic.
Crucial stretch: The whole month of February. Florida is slated to play 16 games, including three back-to-backs.
Carolina Hurricanes
Gregg Forwerck / National Hockey League / GettyPlayoff odds: 71.6%
Remaining home-road split: 15-17
Avg. opponent point %: .575 (3rd)
The Hurricanes haven't gotten great results since the calendar flipped to 2020 and things aren't about to get easier, as they face one of the toughest schedules in the league to close the season. Interestingly, though, Money Puck gives Carolina slightly better odds to make the postseason than the Islanders. The underlying numbers offer one possible explanation: The Canes own the league's fourth-best expected goals rate at 53.5% while the Islanders rank 20th at 48.73%.
Crucial stretch: There's a ton at stake for the Canes from March 22-28, as they'll take on the Isles and Maple Leafs, plus the Penguins twice.
Philadelphia FlyersPlayoff odds: 39.2%
Remaining home-road split: 16-16
Avg. opponent point %: .569 (7th)
The Flyers have managed to stay in the hunt, but the deck appears to be stacked against them. Philly's 18 regulation wins are the fewest of any team fighting for position, and the seventh-hardest remaining schedule in the league poses a significant obstacle. The Flyers have two games left against the Islanders and Blue Jackets and one against the Hurricanes, so they have opportunities to keep pace, but their 10-13-2 road record doesn't bode well.
Crucial stretch: Mid-February. We mentioned that massive pair of games against the Blue Jackets on Feb. 18 and 20, but Philly also faces the Panthers on Feb. 10 and 13 and meets the Islanders and Lightning that same week.
Toronto Maple LeafsPlayoff odds: 70.8%
Remaining home-road split: 16-16
Avg. opponent point %: .557 (18th)
After limping into their break with one win in six games, the Maple Leafs recorded an important victory Monday night in Nashville. Toronto certainly has the talent to figure this out but can ill afford more no-show performances like the ones that have contributed to its current hole. Frederik Andersen's .891 save percentage in January also needs to rapidly improve.
Crucial stretch: The Leafs have a relatively manageable schedule, but the five-game span from Feb. 18-27 will be a huge factor in determining their fate. They'll play the Penguins twice and also face the Hurricanes, Lightning, and Panthers.
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