Fantasy: Early bust candidate for all 32 NFL teams

With free agency and the draft still ahead, NFL rosters will undergo seismic changes over the next few months.

Before the shuffling begins, let's take an early look at the players positioned to let us down when the 2020 season kicks off.

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• 32 breakout candidates

Arizona Cardinals

David Johnson, RB - Johnson will be a volatile fantasy asset in 2020 after losing his starting role to Kenyan Drake during a down year. Injuries have definitely hurt his cause, but his range of outcomes for next season spans from regaining his once elite form to serving as a full-time backup. The one thing that isn't likely to happen is Johnson being released since that would result in a massive cap hit. With the Cardinals hoping to re-sign Drake in free agency, Johnson is a dangerous pick before the middle rounds.

Atlanta FalconsIcon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Devonta Freeman, RB - If Freeman's declining results on the field weren't enough to convince you to stay away, the Falcons provided another warning sign by scheduling the most visits with running back prospects so far this offseason. There's also a good chance that the team will make an early investment at the position in this year's draft, meaning someone other than Freeman could be starting in the backfield come Week 1.

Baltimore Ravens

Mark Ingram, RB - Ingram is coming off an outstanding first campaign in Baltimore, where he brought a defining personality to the offense and posted RB1 numbers in fantasy. However, Ingram was one of only two rushers to finish in the top 20 of PPR scoring with fewer than 30 receptions. His 15 total touchdowns - five of which came as a pass-catcher - accounted for 37% of his fantasy production. As we know, touchdown scoring can be hard to replicate year-to-year, especially for a back who'll turn 31 during the season.

Buffalo Bills

Cole Beasley, WR - Beasley was a WR3 across all fantasy formats in 2019 and made his way into lineups during an eight-week stretch where he scored all six of his touchdowns. His 106 targets were a career high, and that's where things get dicey. The Bills are almost certainly going to bring in a playmaker at wide receiver who can join Beasley and John Brown in three-wide sets. With tight end Dawson Knox potentially taking a step forward as well, Beasley's volume may suffer.

Carolina Panthers

Ian Thomas, TE - Greg Olsen's departure sets up Thomas to emerge as the Panthers' starter and places him on the lengthy list of late-round tight ends with significant upside in 2020. While Thomas has the tools to succeed in that role, his NFL sample size is small. His catch rate and yards per reception declined from Year 1 to Year 2 in limited opportunities both seasons. The front office also has a decision to make regarding Cam Newton, leaving Carolina's quarterback situation unsettled at the moment and adding another hazard for Thomas' fantasy value.

Chicago Bears

Tarik Cohen, RB - Cohen's involvement and effectiveness in the Bears' offense declined in 2019. He caught more passes than he did the year before, but his rushing attempts decreased and he averaged 1.2 yards less per rush, 4.4 yards less per reception, and scored five fewer touchdowns. With the front office expecting David Montgomery to assume a larger workload moving forward, Cohen would be hard to trust on your fantasy roster.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow, QB - The Bengals don't have a real bust candidate, but all signs point to Burrow being the first overall selection in April's draft. Top picks dominate headlines, and Burrow is fresh off one of the best seasons we've seen from a college quarterback. As excited as fantasy managers will be, the Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and star wideout A.J. Green's future with the team is unclear as he reaches free agency. Burrow is an excellent prospect, just don't get too caught up in the hype entering his first NFL campaign - the transition for rookie passers is rarely seamless.

Cleveland BrownsIcon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Jarvis Landry, WR - Landry outplaying Odell Beckham Jr. in their first year together on the Browns was a stunning development and one we aren't likely to see again in 2020. Landry underwent hip surgery in February, which is expected to sideline him for six-to-eight months, putting his availability for Week 1 in doubt and leaving a question mark around his early-season effectiveness. Even if Landry's healthy, Beckham is poised to bounce back, tight end David Njoku could get more involved under a new coaching staff, and pass-catching back Kareem Hunt will be around for a full campaign, which will all impact Landry's target volume. Think twice before you click Landry's name in fantasy drafts.

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott, QB - If the Cowboys handle their business properly, Prescott won't belong anywhere near a "bust" list. In four NFL seasons, he's never finished outside the top 12 in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks, and Dallas has all the weapons for him to be in the top five for a second straight year. However, the fairly stable environment he's enjoyed up to this point is undergoing some changes with a new coaching staff coming to town. His No. 1 target, Amari Cooper, who's helped Prescott reach new heights, is also about to hit the open market, and after handing out a monster deal to Ezekiel Elliott last year, there's no guarantee Jerry Jones will be able to keep Cooper. This doesn't mean you should shy away from Prescott, there's just more cause for concern than in past years.

Denver Broncos

Phillip Lindsay, RB - As an undrafted free agent measuring 5-foot-8 and 190 pounds, Lindsay has broken the mold by rushing for over 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons. But a recent report from trusted Broncos beat writer Mike Klis of 9News says the front office is looking into this year's crop of free-agent running backs, which includes Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, and Kenyan Drake. He also mentions the team did official interviews with at least four of the top RB prospects at the combine. Even if the Broncos' goal is to replace backup Royce Freeman, adding another notable name to the backfield would be detrimental to Lindsay's fantasy value.

Detroit Lions

Kerryon Johnson, RB - Johnson might be a top-10 talent at his position. His durability has been a problem, however, as he's missed 14 games over two seasons since being drafted. It wouldn't be shocking to see the coaching staff roll back his touches in an effort to keep him healthy, and if the Lions can't rely on him, how can fantasy owners? Detroit could be a sneaky destination for one of the top backs in free agency or the draft.

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers, QB - The issue surrounding Rodgers is the public's perception. He was the QB9 in 2019, throwing for zero or one touchdown in nine of his 16 games en route to the worst full-season fantasy finish of his career. Unfortunately, name recognition can often push longtime stars up draft boards even if they no longer deserve it. Barring serious upgrades to his pass-catching corps behind Davante Adams, the 37-year-old will settle in as a low-end QB1 in fantasy.

Houston TexansIcon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Will Fuller, WR - After missing 22 of a possible 64 games as a pro, including at least five contests each of the last three years, the Texans and fantasy managers alike should be worried about Fuller's durability. Even Fuller seemed uncertain of himself when he said, per ESPN's Sarah Barshop, "I just need to find someone that's good at what they do so they can help me out, figure out my body and everything I can do from the inside out." Not exactly an expression of confidence. Fuller has been one of the league's most productive wideouts on a per-game basis when healthy, but he's becoming a Hail Mary toss in fantasy.

Indianapolis Colts

Jack Doyle, TE - Eric Ebron's looming free agency will inevitably cause interest to grow around Doyle, who's been an impact fantasy tight end before. This iteration of the Colts' offense might not allow Doyle to emerge as a fantasy starter, considering he failed to top 30 yards in four of the five games he played without Ebron late last season and scored just one touchdown over that span. If Indy manages to land one of the prize free-agent quarterbacks, we'll revisit Doyle's outlook.

Jacksonville Jaguars

DJ Chark, WR - Chark's breakout came with harsh splits between the first half of the campaign (82.5 yards, .75 touchdowns per game) and his second half (49.7 yards, .29 touchdowns). Injuries may have played a factor, but defenses definitely began keying on him as the year progressed. The Jaguars' new offense will be something of a mystery until we get a better feel for offensive coordinator Jay Gruden's plans. Early indications are that the team will look to throw more as it gets away from its run-heavy ways of recent seasons. Gruden's offenses tend to favor getting the ball out quick, which doesn't bode well for Chark on the outside and could lead to a more balanced target distribution. Upside remains, as the Jags could continue to feature him.

Kansas City Chiefs

Damien Williams, RB - Williams has been a dominant fantasy force late in the last two regular seasons and playoffs, but injuries have prevented us from seeing whether he can maintain that kind of production over a full NFL calendar. Even so, it's impossible to deny how effective he's been when on the field.

Points per touch (half-PPR) and receptions for RBs with at least 300 total touches over the L2 years (including the postseason):

1. James White 1.22, 184
2. Austin Ekeler 1.09, 138
3. Damien Williams 1.07, 74
4. Tarik Cohen 1.03, 153
5. Christian McCaffrey 1.02, 223

- John Paulsen (@4for4_John) February 29, 2020

The Chiefs may or may not view him as a long-term option, and until that question is answered, Williams will be a chancy choice in fantasy drafts. Williams will have RB1 potential if Kansas City doesn't make a notable addition at the position, but he'll need to stay healthy.

Las Vegas Raiders

Tyrell Williams, WR - Williams' numbers during his debut season with the Raiders were somewhat misleading given that he put up a touchdown in each the first five games. He scored just once the rest of the way and was held to seven targets or fewer in every appearance while dealing with foot issues throughout the year. After the failed Antonio Brown experiment, it's a lock that Las Vegas brings in competition at receiver, making it even harder for Williams to be fantasy viable.

Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler, RB - The Chargers don't really have a bust candidate, at least not until we find out who will be playing quarterback for them. If they struggle to replace Rivers then Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will be much less attractive for fantasy. For now, Ekeler comes with the highest fantasy price tag of anyone on the roster - a second-round pick. We got a glimpse of what he could be during Melvin Gordon's holdout, and that's a borderline elite fantasy running back. But until we know who's starting under center, that's a risky investment for a player whom Los Angeles seems to want to keep in a committee.

Los Angeles RamsMeg Oliphant / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Todd Gurley, RB - Gurley's arrow is pointed down, as injuries have stolen his explosiveness and dimmed his long-term outlook. Reports indicate the Rams have considered trading or even cutting Gurley, which is a shocking turn of events given the four-year, $57-million contract they signed him to less than two years ago. His 14 touchdowns salvaged many fantasy weeks in 2019, but with offensive line issues and a potential volume threat from Darrell Henderson and/or Malcolm Brown, you should look elsewhere to fill your RB2 spot.

Miami Dolphins

Preston Williams, WR - Prior to his injury, Williams was on pace for 64 receptions, 856 yards, and six touchdowns as an undrafted free agent. As we mentioned in the breakouts column, Williams will only be 10 months removed from his torn ACL when Week 1 arrives. That puts him at risk of missing the opener and makes his early-season effectiveness a dangerous thing to bet on.

Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins, QB - Cousins boasts some of the most enticing skill-position weapons of any NFL quarterback, and while Minnesota's talent is real, the potential for production is a mirage. The Vikings were serious about their dedication to a run-first offense, which caused Cousins' passing attempts to drop from 38 per game in his first season to just 30 per outing this year. As a result, his passing yards fell by 695 yards and he threw four fewer touchdowns. Unless Minnesota changes its approach, Cousins is doomed to underwhelm.

New England Patriots

Sony Michel, RB - The Patriots are another team stuck in limbo until a decision is made about their quarterback. If Tom Brady is simply posturing to get more money out of the organization, he's doing an excellent job and has many convinced he will leave in free agency. What happens to the one-dimensional Michel in a Brady-less New England attack that would find itself in scoring position far less frequently?

New Orleans Saints

Jared Cook, TE - The 32-year-old relied on career highs in yards per catch (16.4) and touchdowns (nine) in order to finish with the seventh-most fantasy points among tight ends in 2019. Cook hasn't been a steady fantasy option for the majority of his career, his recent success with the Raiders and Saints notwithstanding. If he's unable to maintain those elite marks or if New Orleans adds another receiver for Brees, Cook will sink into the low-end TE1 range.

New York Giants

Sterling Shepard, WR - Shepard's desire to emerge as the Giants' No. 1 receiver was stifled by multiple concussions that forced him to miss six games. Entering his fifth season, he'll face more competition than ever with wideouts Golden Tate and Darius Slayton, tight end Evan Engram, and superstar back Saquon Barkley all vying for targets.

New York JetsAdam Glanzman / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Le'Veon Bell, RB - Bell's ADP has come back to earth in 2020 after fantasy owners were left disappointed by his debut campaign with the Jets. The offseason will be telling for this offense, which needs major improvements at receiver, and more importantly, on the offensive line. Until we see better blocking in New York, Bell won't rise above low-end RB2 status. His best chance might be a trade, though that still seems unlikely no matter how much Adam Gase may be rooting for it.

Philadelphia Eagles

Alshon Jeffery, WR - The upside for a receiver attached to a Carson Wentz-led Eagles attack should be high, but there are a few things working against Jeffery in Philadelphia. He's 30 years old, recovering from foot surgery, and hasn't eclipsed 850 receiving yards since 2014 when he was a member of the Bears. Jeffery was also reportedly critical of Wentz last season and recently expressed interest in a change of scenery, though his contract makes a move difficult. That kind of turmoil is enough to steer clear of a player as we learned with Antonio Brown.

Pittsburgh Steelers

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR - Coming off a nightmare year, Smith-Schuster will be ecstatic to have Ben Roethlisberger back in the lineup. Fantasy managers appear equally enthused, as Smith-Schuster is going off the board as a top-15 wideout in early best-ball drafts. That's awfully optimistic since it hinges on a 38-year-old quarterback returning from major elbow surgery. Will Big Ben be able to stay healthy? Will he be as effective? Or is the sun setting on his career at a similar time as two other notable passers he was drafted with, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers? JuJu is still oozing potential, but he's outside my top 20 given his reliance on Roethlisberger, who's still a few months away from being cleared.

San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB - While reports that the 49ers would sign Brady and move on from Garoppolo seem silly, fantasy owners should avoid both next season. The success of San Francisco's rushing attack negates the need for a Herculean effort through the air most weeks, thus limiting Jimmy G's stat lines. Aside from his four-touchdown shootout with the Saints, Garoppolo's only notable fantasy performances last year came against the bottom-feeder defenses of the Bengals and the Cardinals. He threw for zero or one touchdown in nine regular-season contests as well as all three playoff outings. You can aim higher at one of fantasy's deepest positions.

Seattle Seahawks

Rashaad Penny, RB - Penny suffered a torn ACL in December, and even with the medical advances that have shortened recovery times, his availability and effectiveness for the 2020 campaign are in doubt. Head coach Pete Carroll has already said Penny will begin training camp on the PUP list, so we can safely speculate about his readiness for the first month of the season. Spend your late-round lottery-ticket pick on someone else.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

O.J. Howard, TE - Howard was one of my biggest misses in 2019, as I had been mesmerized by his elite numbers during limited action over his first two seasons. Fool me once. Even if Bruce Arians finds the veteran quarterback that he desires in free agency, Howard will need to prove himself before we spend fantasy draft capital on him again.

Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill, QB - The idea of Tom Brady signing with the Titans doesn't seem as outlandish as it did even a few weeks ago. Perhaps the Titans realize a half-season of Tannehill is a small sample size to use as the basis for a significant contract. Fantasy managers should be just as hesitant to invest in a quarterback who has six seasons of sporadic production on his resume and excelled for less than a year with unsustainable efficiency in a run-first offense. Don't get caught up in the fairytale that was the Titans' 2019 campaign.

Washington Redskins

Dwayne Haskins, QB - Reports that Washington is legitimately considering taking Tua Tagovailoa with the second pick could be a smokescreen, but after Haskins struggled through his rookie season, it's not out of the question. His accuracy was so bad as a rookie, it forced me to downgrade his promising young receiving corps led by Terry McLaurin, Kelvin Harmon, and Steven Sims. Washington has a tough decision to make, but for fantasy owners, it's easy - don't draft Haskins.

More from this series

• 32 breakout candidates

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