Fantasy: Early analysis of every move from latest wave of free agency

Justin Boone

from on 2020-03-20 23:13 (#51176)

Recent fantasy articles

Let's look at the latest wave of notable skill-position signings - and what they mean for fantasy owners.

Todd Gurley, RB, Falcons

Contract: 1 year, $5 million

Gurley was cut by the Rams just two seasons after putting his signature on a four-year, $60-million deal. The debate over whether his declining production was the result of an arthritic knee or a rapidly eroding Rams offensive line will continue throughout the offseason, but either way, it was clear the 25-year-old had lost some explosiveness in 2019.

Though yards per carry isn't the best metric by which to measure a running back's success, a drop of more than a yard from one season to the next is cause for concern. Without his work around the goal line - including 14 touchdowns - Gurley would have been a fantasy bust last season.

However, the Falcons offer a cushy landing spot with a loaded offense and a solid set of blockers, including a pair of promising sophomores in right guard Chris Lindstrom and right tackle Kaleb McGary. Atlanta also desperately needs a lead back after releasing Devonta Freeman. With Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and now Hayden Hurst catching passes from Matt Ryan, defenses won't be able to key on Gurley as he returns to the state where he was a collegiate star.

While you should be worried about Gurley's long-term outlook, his volume and scoring opportunities in Atlanta will be enough to keep him in the RB2 ranks if he can stay on the field. Just don't get fooled into taking him any earlier than the third round of fantasy drafts, since he longer has top-five potential.

We'll dive into what this signing means for the Rams' backfield more in the coming weeks, but both Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown get a major boost in value as they prepare to form a committee to replace Gurley. Brown has the trust of his coaching staff, who allowed him to stay above his rookie teammate on the depth chart to this point. That might not last much longer, though, as Henderson's game-breaking talent could vault him into the starting job. For now, Henderson can be viewed as an upside RB3 and Brown as a flex option with a limited ceiling.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos

Contract: 2 years, $16 million

Gordon completely misplayed his hand while searching for a new deal over the last year, and it left him with few suitors when he finally hit the open market.

The Falcons, the Buccaneers, or even the Dolphins would have provided a clear path to a starting role, but Gordon chose to sign in Denver, where he can face his former club, the Chargers, twice a year. Who needs money when you're fueled by revenge?

The problem for Gordon is the presence of fan-favorite rusher Phillip Lindsay, a hard-working yet undersized back who topped 1,000 yards in each of his first two NFL campaigns and will be - at worst - part of a committee in 2020.

Gordon racked up fantasy stats while playing alongside Austin Ekeler, and he's more than capable of doing the same with Lindsay. The bigger question is how the more valuable touches will be distributed in Denver.

Gordon averaged nearly 12 touchdowns and 48 receptions per season over the last four years. Lindsay posted 35 catches in back-to-back campaigns but saw his targets cut in half over the final eight games of 2019 - just 16 passes were thrown his way during that stretch.

That positions Gordon to be a low-end RB2 in fantasy on an offense built around the run. Lindsay's fantasy stock takes a huge hit, leaving him in the RB3 range.

Eric Ebron, TE, Steelers

Contract: 2 year, $12 million

Two years ago, all signs pointed to a monster campaign for Ebron, who went on to post a double-digit touchdown total and finish as a top-four fantasy tight end.

Regression was inevitable in 2019, but injuries sealed Ebron's fate and sent him to injured reserve after Week 12 - bringing an unsatisfying end to his time with the Colts.

This year, consistency will be an issue for Ebron due to the plethora of pass-catchers in the Steelers' arsenal. With JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and James Washington at receiver, James Conner at running back, and even Vance McDonald at tight end, Ebron's target share could vary wildly from week to week.

If Ben Roethlisberger makes a full recovery from the elbow surgery that sidelined him for most of last season, this offense will be a dangerous unit and Ebron will have a chance to make regular visits to the end zone.

Overall, picture Ebron with the 2020 Steelers as a more athletic version of Darren Fells with the 2019 Texans - a player who scored seven touchdowns but struggled to amass yardage, ultimately failing to crack the top 12 tight ends.

Nick Foles, QB, Bears

Trade: Bears acquire Foles
Jaguars get 4th-round pick

Foles arrives in Chicago as Mitch Trubisky's backup, but make no mistake - this will be an open competition in training camp.

With the exception of their young quarterback, the Bears have a playoff roster. Meanwhile, Foles is a veteran who's proven he can help guide a talented team deep into the postseason.

Despite limitations of his own, Foles could be a stabilizing presence for an offense that's dealt with erratic play under center over the last couple of seasons. Though he's unlikely to be anything more than a bye-week replacement in fantasy, Foles would represent a notable upgrade for the outlooks of receivers Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller.

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