Stanley Cup odds: Reviewing our best, worst calls

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At a couple of points this season, I dove into the updated Stanley Cup odds and used analytics to suggest the best teams to buy low and sell high.

Depending on which advice you chose to follow, you either loved me or hated me up until the season was suspended. If you bet the Florida Panthers, you should probably stop reading now. Sorry.

The best

Nov. 28: Buy Vegas Golden Knights at 14-1

My thesis: "This is a Stanley Cup-caliber team that's playing much better than its record indicates. With a legitimate stud goalie in Marc-Andre Fleury and a deep roster in front of him, Vegas will go on a run anytime now. Once that happens, good luck finding 14-1 anywhere."

I scooped the Golden Knights up at 14-1 and never found a better price throughout the season. I was feeling great about this bet a couple of weeks ago when Vegas had won 11 of 13 games and was as short as 7-1 ... but we all know what happened next.

Dec. 4: Sell Winnipeg Jets at 20-1

My thesis: "You could do a lot better than Winnipeg at 20-1. The Jets have no business being priced alongside the likes of the Carolina Hurricanes, Dallas Stars, or Philadelphia Flyers."

From Dec. 4 on, the Jets had a losing record and were on pace to narrowly miss the playoffs. They currently have 66-1 odds to win the Cup.

Nov. 28: Buy Colorado Avalanche at 16-1

My thesis: "You can expect a deep playoff run from this team, which began the season with 12-1 odds. Those odds will be a lot shorter come January, at the latest, so hop on at 16-1 while you still can."

The Avalanche certainly looked poised for a Cup run. They went 28-13-5 after this was written and had 8-1 odds when the season was suspended. Getting them at double that? Talk about good timing.

The worst

Nov. 28: Buy Florida Panthers at 25-1

My thesis: "Sergei Bobrovsky is too good of a goaltender for these issues to continue, and Joel Quenneville is a master behind the bench. The Panthers are loaded with talent at forward and they possess a strong top four in defense. All the ingredients for a Cup run are there."

This pick was worse than any of the above selections were good. Nothing I said about the Panthers was wrong, technically, but does it really matter? Bobrovsky's struggles absolutely continued, Quenneville couldn't iron out the issues, and despite the talent on the roster, this team just never became what I expected. If you're looking for stock, the Panthers are currently at 75-1. Good thing I bought low ...

Dec. 4: Sell St. Louis Blues at 10-1

My thesis: "St. Louis is certainly due for regression, but it's hard to doubt this team. If anything, the Blues are a prime example of advanced stats telling only part of the story. They have a deep roster, a great goalie, and perhaps an even better coach. Still, it would be naive to throw these stats out the window. This isn't to say bettors should back off the Blues entirely, but they should exercise caution, especially at such a short price."

Maybe this wasn't terrible? Of course, regression never even ventured into the state of Missouri. The Blues, currently at 9-1, kept rolling and looked primed for another run at the Cup. I deserve all the slander that comes my way for blatantly ignoring my instincts and backing off the defending champions because of a couple advanced stats.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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