‘I am deeply concerned’: Toronto imposes mandatory COVID-19 quarantine rules for at least 12 weeks

After being briefed on provincial modelling, Toronto public health officials say the city risks mass deaths unless dire measures are taken for the next 12 weeks.

Toronto's medical officer of health Dr. Eileen de Villa announced new orders Wednesday morning, including mandatory home quarantine for people with COVID-19, and anyone who has had close contact with someone infected.

Toronto officials, including de Villa, acknowledged they were imposing the new orders after seeing Ontario's COVID-19 modelling, but referred specific questions about the projected outbreak numbers to provincial officials - who refused to detail those projections despite repeated questions on Wednesday.

The city hall press conference was unusually timed, preempting provincial updates scheduled for later in the day.

Outlining the growth in Toronto cases - more than 500 per cent in the last two weeks - de Villa said she is now doing everything in her legal power to help prevent further spread.

"This is not a favourable trajectory," she said. "And as your medical officer of health responsible for protecting the city's health - your health - I am deeply concerned."

Coun. Joe Cressy, the chair of the city's board of health, said Wednesday that he, Mayor John Tory and others had been briefed Saturday by Toronto's top medical officials on the state of the virus in the city and the "potential forecast for the future based on provincial modelling."

"Based on that briefing, we believe there is a fierce urgency of now to implement immediate measures if we are going to stop the unnecessary loss of life and preserve the integrity of our healthcare system," he said.

Asked if he was worried, Cressy said: "I think we have a narrow window upon which Toronto and our province can prevent significant loss of life and I cannot stress the importance of going hard and going now, which is what the city announced today."

De Villa would not disclose what that modelling said, referring questions to her provincial counterparts.

"There are a number of steps that are being taken by the province," she said, noting she understands those officials are pursuing similar orders on a regional level and they continue to discuss how they can collaborate better together.

Premier Doug Ford refused to discuss the specifics of the modelling numbers on Wednesday.

"There's different models " If we pick one model over another it sends two different messages," he told reporters.

"Those models can drastically, drastically change. If we underestimate on one side and we overestimate on the other, and create a panic if we overestimate. But the facts are very clear. We're going through turbulent waters. We've been saying it over and over again: make sure that you don't congregate."

The new orders and recommendations from de Villa are in force for the next 12 weeks, until June 24. They are:

• All individuals with COVID-19 must stay home under the Health Protection and Promotion Act for 14 days. The same order is issued for anyone who has close contact to somebody infected.

• Anyone who is not ill or has not travelled is strongly directed to stay home, except for the following reasons: accessing healthcare or medication; shopping for groceries once per week; walking their dogs; getting daily exercise while maintaining physical distancing of at least two metres.

• People returning from international travel must stay home, as per an existing federal order.

• Anyone over the age of 70, as the province announced this week, is strongly encouraged to stay home as much as possible

• Increased supports for self-isolation for those experiencing homelessness, only essential businesses staying open, and increased cleaning and active screening of employees of all businesses.

De Villa outlined the growth of infections in Toronto over the past month, from 102 confirmed cases and 43 probable cases on March 18 to yesterday with 628 confirmed cases, another 165 probable infections with 65 people in hospital, 33 of them in intensive care.

The dramatic spread of the virus in Toronto has put the city at risk of a deadly explosion of the virus and an overwhelming of the health care system now seen in other cities, including New York City.

As of Tuesday, New York, which saw its first COVID-19 case March 1, had almost 42,000 infections and almost 1,100 deaths, with no end in sight, de Villa said.

"That is a very stark picture, but one that is honest and is true and premised on the data in front of us," de Villa said. "We must absolutely implement stronger measures to avoid the kinds of results we are seeing in places like New York City," with an ovewhelmed health care system and economic and social distruption.

"I am saying in the strongest terms possible that people need to stay home as much as possible," de Villa said.

She said her department has studied places, including South Korea, that have contained the virus's spread, and others like New York City with many more deaths.

De Villa said she will ask the provincial government to further reduce the kinds of businesses that are allowed to remain open.

"If we do not take these actions today, the city will see substantially increased loss of life, and may not begin to recover, economically and as a society, until the end of 2020," the city said in a news release.

Tory told reporters he is "locking the city down as much as any municipal government could," under the emergency declaration made earlier.

Tory said he does not relish imposing the escalating limits on personal freedom, "but I believe it's necessary to protect the public and save many, many lives."

As de Villa spoke, Ontario's chief medical officer announced he is "strongly urging" other municipalities to follow Toronto's lead. Local public health leaders should invoke a law allowing them to issue orders restricting the movements of COVID-19 patients and their contacts, said Dr. David Williams.

"The powers are in the communicable disease section of the Health Protection and Promotion Act to ensure cases and contacts of people with the new coronavirus are isolated," said Williams.

De Villa's orders followed news reported by the Star late Tuesday that COVID-19 is surging in Toronto long-term-care homes, with public health reporting three new deaths. Tests confirm the virus is now in 15 nursing homes, with outbreaks in six.

The numbers are fluid as test results for residents and workers continue to come back positive, but new details from Toronto Public Health showed the virus has spread in homes where it already existed and is also causing outbreaks, with three new deaths reported Tuesday bringing the total for local nursing homes to five.

With files from Rob Ferguson and Moira Welsh

David Rider is the Star's City Hall bureau chief and a reporter covering city hall and municipal politics. Follow him on Twitter: @dmrider

Jennifer Pagliaro is a Toronto-based reporter covering city hall and municipal politics. Follow her on Twitter: @jpags