Was I wrong about coronavirus? Even the world's best scientists can't tell me | Simon Jenkins

I can't tell if my optimism is misguided when experts disagree on everything from mortality rates to preventive measures

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I was wrong. Or I think I was. I heard Boris Johnson on 3 March leap into war mode and publish 28 pages of emergency plans, should coronavirus take hold in Britain. There were reports that "half a million could die". I was sceptical.

I noted that in 1999 it had been said that BSE "could kill" half a million. Sars in 2003 had a "25% chance of killing tens of millions". In 2009, the British government said 65,000 "could die" of swine flu.