NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds: T.J. Watt tops list of early value
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When it comes to the Associated Press Defensive Player of the Year Award, one thing stands out: Voters like sacks. New England Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore won the award last season but since 2011, seven of the nine winners have been defensive linemen or outside linebackers. Two men have dominated the award in recent years: Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald and Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt. The duo has combined to win DPOY five times in the last eight years.
Donald is the +750 favorite to take home his third award in four seasons, but there are players with more value for bettors in the initial odds.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aaron Donald | +750 |
| Khalil Mack | +1100 |
| Nick Bosa | +1400 |
| Stephon Gilmore | +1500 |
| T.J. Watt | +1500 |
| J.J. Watt | +1800 |
| Von Miller | +1800 |
| Derwin James | +2000 |
| Bobby Wagner | +2300 |
| Danielle Hunter | +2300 |
| Joey Bosa | +2500 |
| Chandler Jones | +2900 |
| Darius Leonard | +2900 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | +2900 |
| Tre'Davious White | +2900 |
| DeMarcus Lawrence | +3300 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | +3300 |
| Jamal Adams | +3300 |
| Myles Garrett | +3300 |
| Bradley Chubb | +4200 |
| Calais Campbell | +4200 |
| DeForest Buckner | +4200 |
| Jalen Ramsey | +4200 |
| Shaquil Barrett | +4200 |
| Cameron Jordan | +5000 |
| Melvin Ingram | +5000 |
| Preston Smith | +5000 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | +5000 |
| Za'Darius Smith | +5000 |
The younger Watt is undervalued in the early odds at 15-1. He finished third in last year's voting behind Gilmore and Chandler Jones after recording 14.5 sacks, 55 tackles, 36 QB hits, and eight forced fumbles. An argument can be made that Watt should be the favorite to win the award after his sack total rose in each of the last three seasons and he registered 27.5 across the last two years.
T.J. Watt is the best bet on the board right now and his +1500 odds won't be available for long. Expect his odds to be closer to 10-1 as the start of the season approaches. Jump on this early value before it's too late.
Nick Bosa, DE 49ers +1400Bosa was named Defensive Rookie of the Year last season, finishing with nine sacks, 47 tackles, and 25 QB hits. He was dominant at times, including in the postseason, where he racked up four sacks in three games. There are a lot of strong contenders to win this award, but if Bosa makes his projected second-year jump in production, he'll be in the running. He will likely close in the 12-1 range, so he has some early value at his current price.
Myles Garrett, DE Browns +3300Garrett is my pick for the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year but he's a great bet to win DPOY as well. Garrett sitting at 33-1 is insane. Before being suspended last season, he was on pace to finish with career-high numbers after registering 10 sacks, 29 tackles, and 18 QB hits in just 10 games. He was in the discussion to win this award last year before the ugly incident against the Pittsburgh Steelers. We're getting value here because of how Garrett's 2019 season ended. Take advantage before his odds are adjusted.
Za'Darius Smith, OLB Packers +5000If you're looking for a live long shot, Smith is the guy. In his first season with the Green Bay Packers, Smith finished with 13.5 sacks, 55 tackles, and 37 QB hits. He placed in the top 10 in last year's voting for DPOY and actually garnered one first-place vote.
Smith is emerging as one of the most feared pass-rushers in the NFL and, despite his being a strong contender for the award last year, 24 players have shorter odds. Smith is one of the few players in the NFL with the ability to record 16-plus sacks and that would put him in the mix to win DPOY. He's a steal at 50-1.
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.
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