Alberta has revealed its COVID-19 projections. Province expects between 400 and 3,100 deaths in ‘probable scenario’

EDMONTON - Alberta will most likely see a peak of coronavirus infections in mid-May and somewhere between 400 and 3,100 deaths by the end of summer, as the COVID-19 pandemic takes hold of the province.

Those are the projections put forward by Alberta Premier Jason Kenney on Tuesday night as he became the lastest provincial leader to publicly lay out the probable and worst-case scenarios of the pandemic.

During a televised address to the province, Kenney said it was time for "complete candour."

But Kenney stressed that much depends on how people decide to act and adhere to physical distancing, personal hygiene and other public health measures laid out by Alberta in recent weeks, since the numbers in the projections aren't set in stone.

Alberta is bracing for about 800,000 cases of COVID-19 in the "probable scenario," according to Alberta Health Services projections.

In what he dubbed an "elevated scenario," Kenney said, there could be upwards of a million infections in that same amount of time. This worst-case scenario would see between 500 and 6,600 deaths by the end of August, he added.

Kenney has also said the province is well equipped to deal with the pandemic in its health-care facilities.

The premier said he wants Albertans to see the projections as "a challenge."

"Perhaps the greatest challenge of our generation."

If nothing were done to combat the pandemic, Kenney said, the health-care system would "collapse" with 1.6 million infections and 32,000 deaths. But, he said, "Albertans won't let that happen."

The Alberta models suggest that any relaxation of social distancing measures can't happen until at least the end of May, Kenney added.

The province also has some goals to further the fight: complete 20,000 tests per day; get people who are immune back to work; continue tracking people who have had contact with those infected; facilitate mask use; and deploy screening at the border that's "more rigorous" than the federal government's.

Further details about Alberta's COVID-19 projections are expected Wednesday, but as of Tuesday, Alberta had almost 1,400 cases and had seen 26 people die.

There's been an ongoing debate throughout Canada about projecting COVID-19 cases past 30 days and how reliable such models are.

Health officials and politicians have stressed that COVID-19 modelling is not an exact science, but it informs government decisions on health-care supplies and equipment; helps direct policy; and has illustrated for an at-times reticent public the need for strict physical distancing measures.

In Quebec, officials on Tuesday said the peak of infections would hit around April 18. But projecting past April and into May wasn't something they felt comfortable with, due to the evolving situation and the many variables that go into projection models.

Still, their projections were stark. Quebec's best-case scenario is 1,200 deaths by the end of April and the worst case reaches nearly 9,000 deaths in the same time frame; however the province based that on Italy's approach, which includes a late response and little in the way of social distancing measures.

Ontario released its COVID-19 modelling last week, as cases continued to soar and British Columbia told the public late last month that due to distancing measures, they were seeing some hopeful signs that the pandemic curve was flattening.

While health officials in Ontario warned of 1,600 deaths in April, they also said that stricter physical distancing measures would offset that number. About 200 deaths were projected in the modelling, and a stretched but manageable amount of hospitalizations, should Ontario adopt strict interventions to stem the spread of the virus.

Premier Doug Ford put further commercial shutdowns in place after the province's models were released.

Depending on how effective public health interventions are, between 3,000 and 15,000 fatalities over the next 18 to 24 months are projected as the epidemic runs its course in Ontario.

But Kenney says Alberta has to look further into the future than most other provinces.

The province is facing another economic crisis - compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic - due to the fallout of OPEC countries dumping oil into the market, driving the price of Western Canadian Select and benchmark oil prices into the ground.

In his televised address, Kenney invoked the Spanish flu, the First World War, and the Great Depression as he tried to underscore the depth of the crisis facing not only Alberta, but the world.

Earlier in the day, at an energy conference, Kenney said that unemployment in the province could reach 25 per cent.

The premier has been pushing for federal assistance in the oil and gas industry, as well as moving to invest heavily in the Keystone XL pipeline to jump-start its construction through April.

The province is projecting a budget deficit of $20 billion due to the pandemic.

"We will face a great fiscal reckoning in the future," Kenney said.

With files from Rob Ferguson, Kate Allen, and The Canadian Press

Kieran Leavitt is an Edmonton-based reporter covering provincial affairs for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @kieranleavitt