Best NFL win total values by strength of schedule

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There are plenty of factors to consider when finding an edge in the win totals market: continuity, divisional competition, regression in close games. Yet one of the biggest and most overlooked factors is strength of schedule.

Last year, the Patriots dominated the first half of the season despite underwhelming play in key areas. Sure enough, they entered the year with the second-easiest schedule in the league. And what about the Raiders and Broncos, who both showed promise but finished below .500? Perhaps the toughest schedules in the league played a role.

Here are a few teams' win totals from theScore Bet that might be worth taking a look at when considering their respective strength of schedules, which are based on their opponents' combined 2019 win percentage.

Easy schedules

Baltimore Ravens (O/U 11.5, 32nd SOS)

As if you needed another reason to go over on the Ravens, here's a great one: They don't play anybody. By virtue of drawing the muddled AFC South and NFC East, Baltimore only faces five playoff teams from a year ago, and at least two of them (the Patriots and Texans) are clear regression candidates. The win total is a big number to hit, but a cupcake schedule should help.

Dallas Cowboys (O/U 9.5, 30th SOS)

If you can't decide between the Cowboys and Eagles at 9.5 wins, consider their schedules: Dallas gets to play the Falcons and Vikings, while Philly is stuck with the Saints and Packers. The Cowboys were already solid over candidates based on 2019 advanced stats but should enjoy a few easy wins along the way.

Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5, 29th SOS)

The Browns deserved plenty of criticism a year ago, but they still showed flashes against what ended up being one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. Now they get a third-place schedule with the same easy divisional matchups as the Ravens. Positive regression is looming.

Hard schedules

New England Patriots (O/U 9, 1st SOS)

Reaching nine wins was already going to be a challenge after losing key players and coaching staff members from 2019. But the toughest schedule in football won't do any favors for the Patriots, who benefited from arguably the easiest slate a year ago. This doesn't factor in improvements for teams within the division, either, which is a new obstacle for New England.

San Francisco 49ers (O/U 10.5, 4th SOS)

Don't get me wrong, I love the 49ers this year, and it's hard not to like the over on a team built like a dynasty. But the schedule is a concern. Despite tough intra-divisional competition a year ago, the Niners had the easiest schedule of any NFC West team. That won't be the case this year, and it could cost San Fran one or two wins you'll need to clear this high bar.

Atlanta Falcons (O/U 7.5, T-5 SOS)

Here's the good news: The Falcons won seven games last year against one of the tougher slates in football. The bad news? Their schedule is just as difficult this year, and that doesn't account for the likely jump from divisional rival Tampa Bay. Don't buy into the Atlanta hype, especially not with this schedule.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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