How COVID-19’s anti-lockdown ‘fringe’ feeds on some Canadians’ real anxieties — and speaks to government’s next challenge

It is clear that some people calling for an end to lockdowns and social distancing are "fringe" provocateurs and online trolls who trade in COVID-19 disinformation and conspiracies, experts say.

But there is also no question, they add, that the dissenters - those pushing to #endthelockdown - are tapping into the feelings of some Canadians who have incurred economic losses and are growing increasingly frustrated about having to hunker down in their homes.

On Monday, provincial premiers and health officials seemed to acknowledge some of those frustrations.

In Ontario, Premier Doug Ford told reporters some people are getting "squirrelly," but stressed that there is simply no quick fix to the current situation.

"I heard the example of Ottawa over the weekend - one of my ministers saying, 'There's only three people in ICU in all of Ottawa, and you're shutting down Ottawa?' But you can't just flick the lights on. You can't just flick it on and open the gates," Ford said.

Observers say the situation illustrates the need for governments to lay out a clear blueprint once the time eventually comes to start relaxing some restrictions, in order to make sure buy-in from the public doesn't crumble.

"To date, we've seen Canadians act responsibly and on credible information," said David Hammond, a professor of population health and consumer behaviour at the University of Waterloo.

"But I do think it raises an important conversation about how government proceeds going forward. " God forbid we have to go backwards."

On the weekend, a small group of protesters gathered outside Vancouver's city hall, calling on government leaders to "end the tyranny" and cease "unlawful orders and quarantines." A video from the event received more than a million views on Twitter, as well as widespread condemnation.

Josh Greenberg is a professor at Carleton University in Ottawa who studies risk communication during public health crises.

He says it's entirely rational to be worried about economic decline.

What's not rational, he says, are those individuals and groups who engage in the "provocative and dramatic expression of those concerns, (and) the flouting of the rule of law."

"Social media campaigns like this one are designed to embed themselves into our conversations; they feed on otherwise rational expressions of public anxiety about economic loss and social isolation."

Rumblings of frustration could pose a tricky tactical dilemma for public officials.

On the one hand, leaders need to show empathy and realize that not all people who express concern for the rules are "crackpots wearing tinfoil hats," Greenberg said.

"On the other hand, and to ensure those individuals are not swept up in more radical campaigns, it's also important to respond to protests such as we saw in Vancouver and other cities with a combination of legal enforcement and continued public health messaging about the necessity for continued social distancing."

Sting of lockdown not felt equally

One of the things that has become apparent during this nationwide lockdown has been the uneven distribution of costs, said Frances Woolley, a professor of economics at Carleton.

While some people are able to work from home and socially isolate with loved ones in relative comfort, others are facing extreme economic and emotional stress, she said.

"One thing that we know from behavioural economics is that people resent unfairness. They are much more willing to sacrifice if they see that others are sacrificing."

Rather than shame all of those who urge an end to the lockdown, it's better to start talking about ways to make the lockdown more bearable both psychologically and economically, she said.

Asked Monday about the weekend rally in Vancouver, B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix told reporters it is inevitable there will be people who are "essentially looking to promote themselves."

"What I'd say to people is focus on what we need to do together. Don't allow people who are attempting to promote themselves by using the suffering of others to distract us. Don't promote them. Don't look at them."

Dr. Bonnie Henry, the provincial health officer, added that most people continue to follow the rules.

"Most people who are flouting things, may not appreciate the issues that are going on," she said.

Earlier in the day, Marc Dalton, a B.C. Conservative MP, posted a tweet asking whether it was time to start reopening businesses and "moving Canada back to work" since most deaths from COVID-19 involved older people in long-term care homes. He subsequently deleted the tweet.

Emerging from our lockdown

When the time eventually comes for public officials to start easing the restrictions, Hammond said, that's when adherence from the public may start to get a bit more complicated.

He invoked the example of the public messaging surrounding smoking. It's pretty straightforward: Don't do it. But when it comes to vaping, the messaging has been a bit more muddled: Yes, it's bad, but not as bad as smoking. Once you introduce those subtleties, it can sow confusion.

That's why when Canadian officials start easing up on COVID-19 restrictions, it will be incumbent on them to provide a "clear and simple" road map, Hammond said. The government might, for instance, announce certain targets. Maybe the number of cases or deaths drops to a certain number or the capacity for testing reaches a certain level.

"Let's hope they're having those conversations now."

Kitty Corbett, a medical anthropologist and professor emeritus in the faculty of health sciences at Simon Fraser University, said Monday moving into that next phase can only come when there's a sustained and significant decline in cases, health-care workers feel safe, testing for infection and immunity is very strong and public heath officials are confident in their ability to monitor for infection clusters and get them under control.

Asked how long that could take, she said "probably months."

The easing of restrictions could roll out differently from one region to the next, she added. Those living in rural, wide-open areas, for instance, may not face the same risks as those living in densely populated, vertical cities.

"People may not trust some types of messages if they don't correspond to what they perceive to be the situation where they live," she said.

Corbett said the warmer summer weather may cause more people to want to get outside and leaders will have to find some creative ways for them to do so safely. Generally though, she said, there remains a high level of trust in provincial and federal leaders to guide them through the crisis.

Most people understand if we're not seeing a surge in cases, that means the strategy is working, she said.

Asked if she worries about vocal dissenters seeking to put an immediate end to restrictions, she said the situation unfolding in the United States may be the "best advertisement possible" for continuing with the Canadian response.

"If they don't get this under control in the U.S. and the situation continues to unfold in the way it was going, I think we're going to say, 'Thank goodness we're in Canada.'"

With files from Ted Fraser and The Canadian Press

Correction - April 14, 2020 - A quote from Dr. Bonnie Henry has been corrected to say "Most people who are flouting things, may not appreciate the issues that are going on"

Douglas Quan is a Vancouver-based reporter for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @dougquan