COVID-19 numbers are likely to be far higher than Ottawa predicts, researchers say
OTTAWA -Canada has passed the crest of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic but COVID-19 could infect many more people than federal officials have estimated if isolation measures are relaxed too soon or too broadly, according to a new study.
That's because there is no vaccine in sight and most Canadians still have no immunity, according to a study by researchers including Amir Attaran of the University of Ottawa, which stands in contrast to a forecast recently released by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC).
Last week, the federal agency said that even with relatively strong epidemic controls, up to 10 per cent of Canada's 37.5 million people could become infected.
But the new study projects that anywhere from 56.7 per cent to 84.5 per cent of Canadians - between 21.2 million and 31.6 million people - could become infected with COVID-19, depending on how soon epidemic control measures are lifted.
The federal forecast is "terribly wrong," Attaran told the House of Commons health committee, because it failed to disclose its methodology and important case data necessary to understand how sick people are getting by province, and what a true case fatality rate is.
Attaran told the committee that the Public Health Agency of Canada's models- which suggested somewhere between 4,400 and 44,000 Canadians could die over the course of a 12-to-18-month outbreak - were "absolutely" flawed.
He said the latest study uses hospitalization data and concludes that the tough epidemic control measures taken since mid-March have effectively broken the chain of transmission for now.
"There's good news and there's bad news here," Attaran testified. "We can't do regional analyses because the data are hidden. But as a country, we've passed the worst of the first wave. We are over the crest, which is wonderful.
"The other good news in our model is that it appears in Canada the virus is proving a bit less infectious than PHAC has estimated. We find it is on the low end of infection estimates that have been done in different countries, so that also means a smaller problem," he said.
"The bad news is, we are all pre-immune, we are all still susceptible," Attaran said. "And so if we lift the self-isolation and go out, many of us could get sick. Some of us will die."
While COVID-19 has yet to become the "tidal wave" that was feared, Attaran argued for rigorous planning of how to lift measures to create "wavelets" or "epidemics we are going to create on purpose in a way that minimizes how many people die and ".so that we're not shooting our economy through the foot more than we need to.
"There is no other way to reopen Canada," said Attaran, a professor in the faculties of law and the school of epidemiology and public health at the University of Ottawa.
The latest study said the lack of federal reporting of cases by onset date, severity and age group for most provinces prevents analysis at smaller geographic scales.
It considered scenarios where interventions would be lifted after 60 to 240 days. It did not model the number of deaths because Attaran said it would be irresponsible to do so without more comprehensive data from the federal and provincial governments.
Attaran singled out chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam and federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu for "botching" the federal modelling, "concealing" provincial numbers, and failing to present a plan for staging the next wave of disease "curvelets," saying it must be planned "or we will accidentally kill people."
PHAC did not respond to a request for comment Tuesday evening.
The federal agency came under fire from several fronts earlier in the day, after Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said he would not be bound by "bureaucrats" who block rapid approvals of testing kits.
Conservative health critic Matt Jeneroux also criticized PHAC for relying on the World Health Organization and expressed anger that Dr. Bruce Aylward, who led the WHO's COVID-19 mission to China, had failed to appear as a witness at the committee as expected.
"This is unacceptable," he said. "There is absolutely no doubt that the WHO has been slow to recommend concrete measures, that has negatively affected Canada's response to the virus. In fact, the WHO has " thanked China for its response, which was to mislead the world on the gravity of the virus."
Tonda MacCharles is an Ottawa-based reporter covering federal politics. Follow her on Twitter: @tondamacc