Fantasy: Ideal landing spots for top QB, RB prospects
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We're in the final stretch before the NFL draft begins Thursday night, and the news cycle is flooded with enough rumors and smoke screens to exhaust even the most hardcore football fans.
So, let's step away from the flurry of reports and dream up the ideal fantasy landing spots for this year's top prospects.
The intention here isn't to predict exactly which team will draft each player. Instead, we're forecasting where the incoming rookies would ideally land to maximize their fantasy value while accounting for talent, opportunity, and where teams are picking.
Prospect Fantasy Outlooks
Quarterbacks
Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images Sport / GettyJoe Burrow - Bengals
Despite the Bengals' recent struggles, Burrow is actually set up quite well for early-career success in Cincinnati. His likely new team will feature an offensive-minded head coach in Zac Taylor, a quality top receiver returning from injury in A.J. Green, an overqualified No. 2 wideout in Tyler Boyd, a former first-round speedster with untapped potential in John Ross, a contested-catch specialist in Auden Tate, and one of the league's best young running backs in Joe Mixon.
The offensive line is a work in progress, but last year's first-round pick Jonah Williams will finally debut, and more help should be on the way in the draft. Burrow is also capable of masking some of the blocking woes with his legs after averaging 384 rushing yards per season over his final two campaigns at LSU. As a rookie, he'll be a mid-range QB2 in fantasy with a chance to flirt with QB1 numbers.
Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins
At the start of last season when the Dolphins committed to a full rebuild, the goal was to tank for Tua. Miami then won more games than expected, but Tua's hip injury could allow the Dolphins to still select him at fifth overall. Miami's front office has displayed a patient approach to reshaping the team's roster, so the Dolphins should be willing to give Tua the time he needs to get healthy.
Veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick will facilitate the transition while helping the rookie prepare for his pro debut. In terms of weapons, the Dolphins boast an underrated arsenal, with DeVante Parker fresh off a breakout, Preston Williams surprising as an undrafted free agent in 2019, and Mike Gesicki showing signs he can be a solid contributor at tight end.
With six picks in the top 70, Miami will also be able to address its offensive line and running backs, creating a strong foundation around Tua. He's a long-term investment as a future top-15 fantasy QB, with a lot of upside if the 22-year-old overcomes his bad injury luck at Alabama.
Justin Herbert - Chargers
Anthony Lynn and the Chargers have made it clear they want to slow things down offensively while using their rushing attack and defense to earn victories. Tyrod Taylor can execute their system and restrict turnovers, but he's a limited passer and caps the potential of a contending team.
Though Herbert is far from a perfect prospect, he could produce a Josh Allen-like impact in Year 1 with a similar combination of a big arm and sneaky rushing ability. While surrounded by one of the NFL's best collections of skill-position talent - Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Austin Ekeler - Herbert would be an instant fantasy QB2 the moment he passes Taylor on the depth chart. He could also break into the top 12 for stretches, as Allen did late as a rookie.
Jalen Hurts - Patriots
The Patriots are among the teams most likely to draft a quarterback this week as they search for Tom Brady's replacement. Unfortunately, they lack the draft capital to move up for one of the top prospects, so finding value will be paramount.
Hurts is an intriguing talent in need of a team willing to build around his unique dual-threat skill set, and the Patriots' coaching staff has always been innovative while adapting their scheme to the personnel on the roster. Could Hurts be the spark Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels need to kick-start their attack without Brady? If given some time to develop under a creative play-caller, borderline QB1 production would be in Hurts' range of outcomes, and he could be a discounted version of Lamar Jackson with a lower ceiling.
Jordan Love - Packers
History repeats itself, and the Packers wisely begin preparing for life without Aaron Rodgers by drafting his potential successor in the same way the two-time MVP was brought in to learn under Brett Favre.
Love is a natural thrower who flashes elite arm talent at times, but he struggles with decision-making. He'll be a project for any NFL team, so spending a couple of seasons studying one of the greatest to ever play the position is a fine way to continue his quarterback education.
Jacob Eason - Steelers
After the Steelers' backups grounded the team's offense to a halt last season, Pittsburgh will gladly welcome a new addition to its quarterback room, hoping Eason could be the heir apparent when Ben Roethlisberger retires.
Every prospect outside of the top three or four quarterbacks in this class will require an incubation period in the pros before they're ready to spread their wings as a starter, if that time ever comes. Eason would be afforded that opportunity while playing behind Big Ben, someone he's similar to given his strong arm and limited mobility.
Jake Fromm - Jaguars
Gardner Minshew was a fun story in 2019, but the odds of him emerging as the Jaguars' franchise quarterback remain slim. Whether it's a free agent like Cam Newton or a draft prospect, competition is coming.
Jacksonville's new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden was able to turn a field general like Kirk Cousins into a competent starter in Washington. Fromm could be his next assignment as a mid-to-late round pick who makes up for an average arm with excellent command of the offense and knowing exactly how to execute within his scheme. Though Fromm's destiny might be to hold a clipboard as an NFL backup, Gruden would at least give him a shot to become something more.
Running Backs
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / GettyD'Andre Swift - Dolphins
A running back might not be taken on the opening night of the draft. However, several teams in need of backfield help are picking late in the first round. The Dolphins entered the offseason with almost nothing of value on their RB depth chart after trading away Kenyan Drake midway through the 2019 campaign. Signing Jordan Howard in free agency gives them a reliable option, but he's not a game-breaker.
Fortunately, the Dolphins hold a plethora of early picks, including a couple in the range of where Swift is likely to be drafted (26th and 39th overall). The Georgia product is a versatile weapon with a three-down skill set, and he can also be deployed out wide as a receiver to create mismatches.
His blend of patience, deceptive power, and impressive burst makes him similar to stars like Alvin Kamara, Le'Veon Bell, and Dalvin Cook. With the volume Miami can offer, Swift would be in the conversation to become a top-20 fantasy back as a rookie, with the potential to reach RB1 production as the offense improves around him.
Jonathan Taylor - Steelers
Some may view this as disrespecting Pittsburgh's current starter James Conner, but as we recently outlined, the Steelers' lead back job might not be as secure as it once seemed. Injuries have limited Conner's production, and the front office has talked openly about bringing in competition. Taylor would be one of the best options after dominating at Wisconsin, averaging 2,000-plus rushing yards per season over the last three years.
He's the best pure runner in this year's class and would take some of the pressure off the passing game, perhaps extending Ben Roethlisberger's career. With the scoring opportunities the Steelers would provide, Taylor could be a top-20 fantasy back right away with RB1 potential if he continues to develop as a pass-catcher.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Jaguars
With the recent reports of Leonard Fournette possibly being on the trade block, would it be that surprising to see the Jags draft his replacement? Edwards-Helaire is a compact rusher with excellent receiving skills, and he's coming off a monster season at LSU. He's extremely quick and dynamic in space, which would allow Jay Gruden to take advantage of his route running.
His fantasy value will get a significant bump in half and full PPR formats, placing him in the low-end RB2 mix if Edwards-Helaire secures starting snaps - which in this instance would require a Fournette trade.
Cam Akers - Buccaneers
With the news Rob Gronkowski is coming out of retirement to join Brady in Tampa, the Buccaneers continue to stockpile offensive weapons. The one area they have yet to address is running back. A difference-maker hasn't been in the Bucs' backfield for a while, and despite how you may feel about Ronald Jones, the answer likely isn't on their current roster.
Akers starred behind a weak offensive line at Florida State, giving him some sleeper potential in the pros. He'll also come at a much cheaper price than the top backs in the class, allowing the Bucs to address other needs - like the offensive line - with their first two picks.
Tampa is one of the best landing spots for a running back given the opportunities available, and the team would make Akers an attractive top-30 fantasy option with a lot of upside.
J.K. Dobbins - Chiefs
Though I'm still not convinced the Chiefs will use one of their five picks on a backfield upgrade, you can't deny the significant opportunity this offense offers a running back. While Dobbins is a good prospect with outstanding college numbers, he profiles closer to an average NFL producer, and not the elite option some are saying he'll become.
So for Dobbins to excel, he'll need a solid future team like Kansas City, where journeyman Damien Williams has emerged as a top fantasy threat when healthy. Unless the Chiefs use one of their first two picks on a running back, Williams will likely get another chance to start, with sophomore Darwin Thompson and newly signed free agent DeAndre Washington backing him up.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn - Falcons
Todd Gurley's effectiveness and career longevity are unknowns due to his arthritic knee, so expect the Falcons to select a running back this week. Vaughn is an underrated prospect with low-key star potential who flashed big-play ability behind an offensive line that did him no favors in college.
It would be great to see him go to Miami or Tampa, where touches would be more readily available. But the No. 2 spot in Atlanta could lead to a decent amount of work as the team tries to lighten Gurley's load. And if Gurley's knees don't hold up, Vaughn would be next in line for carries in an offense with a prolific passing attack and a rising offensive line.
Other options
- Anthony McFarland Jr. - Titans
- Zack Moss - Lions
- AJ Dillon - Seahawks
- Darrynton Evans - Rams
- Antonio Gibson - Eagles
- Lamical Perine - Texans
Prospect Fantasy Outlooks
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