Fantasy: NFL draft instant analysis and projections - Round 1
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theScore's Justin Boone provided instant breakdowns of every fantasy-relevant selection in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals (1st)Star potential: a...a...a...a...a...
2020 projection (16 starts): 4,074 passing yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs
293 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 5 FUMs
In a draft full of uncertainty, Cincinnati selecting Burrow was the lone lock heading into the opening round.
Coming off one of the best statistical campaigns we've ever seen from a college quarterback, Burrow joins a roster with an underrated crop of skill position players in A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, and Joe Mixon, as well as an offensive-minded coach in Zac Taylor. Don't let Cincy's questionable run-heavy play-calling down the stretch fool you, this is a team capable of producing through the air.
If tackle Jonah Williams, the team's first-round pick last year, can return to full health - accompanied by a couple of more upgrades on the line - Burrow will get a chance to deliver immediately. He's not fast enough to be a true rushing threat in the pros. But he'll provide sufficient yardage on the ground to boost his fantasy value as a QB2 with some upside in Year 1, then develop into a possible QB1 down the road. Add him to your list of late-round quarterbacks to target in 2020.
Stock Up: Joe Burrow, A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, John Ross
Stock Down: Andy Dalton
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a...
2020 projection (8 starts): 2,023 passing yards, 11 TDs, 8 INTs
89 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 FUMs
The Dolphins used the fifth overall pick to select a player they hope can become their franchise quarterback. The only question will be how the organization approaches his return from a serious hip injury that brought a premature end to his college career in 2019. Having a stopgap veteran like Ryan Fitzpatrick on the roster will allow Miami to take its time with Tua, which is why we're projecting him for only eight starts in his debut campaign.
Once Tagovailoa takes the field, he'll have as much upside as any quarterback in this class, and the Dolphins boast a solid assortment of pass-catchers in DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and Mike Gesicki. However, the odds of Tagovailoa making a significant fantasy impact as a rookie are slim, especially behind a weak Dolphins' offensive line. His limitations as a rusher could also cap his fantasy outlook since most top-10 quarterbacks run to enhance their numbers. Looking long term, he can develop into a low-end fantasy QB1 if he overcomes durability doubts.
Stock Up: DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki
Stock Down: Ryan Fitzpatrick
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a
2020 projection (10 starts): 2,216 passing yards, 13 TDs, 11 INTs
260 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 4 FUMs
The Chargers have made it clear they want to slow things down offensively while using their rushing attack and defense to earn victories. Tyrod Taylor can execute their system and restrict turnovers, so Herbert won't be handed the job in training camp. Expect him to eventually wrestle it away around midseason when the team realizes Taylor's limitations.
Though Herbert is far from a perfect prospect, he could produce a Josh Allen-like impact in Year 1 with a similar combination of a big arm and sneaky rushing ability. While surrounded by one of the NFL's best collections of skill-position talent - Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Austin Ekeler - Herbert will be an instant fantasy QB2 the moment he passes Taylor on the depth chart. He may also break into the top 12 for stretches, as Allen did late as a rookie.
Stock Up: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Austin Ekeler
Stock Down: Tyrod Taylor
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a
2020 projection: 55 receptions, 867 receiving yards, 6 TDs
The Raiders have a vacancy atop their receiving depth chart and Ruggs has an opportunity to become their version of Tyreek Hill. Though Ruggs doesn't come with all the tools of an elite prospect, he's more than just a field-stretcher, with 4.27-second 40-yard speed that would make Al Davis proud.
Ruggs can line up at multiple positions, makes great adjustments to the ball, and is tough enough to battle defenders on contested catches. The Raiders will use him as their No. 1 receiver, which means top-24 fantasy numbers are not out of the question even in his debut campaign. We'll likely see some inconsistency, though, so it's more realistic to value Ruggs as a fantasy WR3 with upside as a rookie.
Stock Up: Henry Ruggs III, Derek Carr
Stock Down: Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a...
2020 projection: 63 receptions, 879 receiving yards, 7 TDs
Jeudy has the skills to be a team's top receiver, so landing with a run-first offense that already features Courtland Sutton is less than ideal. Even so, Jeudy should enjoy a fairly seamless transition to the NFL - his route-running and ability to separate are pro-ready. Despite facing high-level competition in the SEC, Jeudy regularly had college defenders' heads spinning as they tried to keep up with his cuts.
For Jeudy to reach his ceiling with the Broncos, he'll need to show he can be more physical on contested catches and clean up some of the inexplicable drops he made in college. My early outlook places him as a high-end WR3 as a rookie with potential for more if he can overtake Sutton as Drew Lock's first read - something that likely won't happen in 2020.
Stock Up: Drew Lock
Stock Down: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a...
2020 projection: 51 receptions, 759 receiving yards, 4 TDs
Lamb was the top-ranked wideout prospect in my pre-draft rankings, but that's going to change with this selection. The Cowboys are already loaded at receiver with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup - who both hit the 1,100-yard mark in 2019 - under contract for at least two more seasons.
Though Lamb has an elite ceiling to eventually emerge as the best of the bunch, he'll face heavy target competition early in his career, making him a WR4 in fantasy until further notice. For him to climb higher, he'll need to soak up the 83 targets vacated by Randall Cobb, while also cutting into some of Cooper's and Gallup's production - a tall task for any first-year pass-catcher.
The real winner of this pick is Dak Prescott. After scoring the second-most fantasy points among quarterbacks last year, Prescott now arguably has the best receiving trio in the league at his disposal.
Stock Up: Dak Prescott
Stock Down: CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Blake Jarwin
Star potential: a...a...a...aa
2020 projection: 37 receptions, 346 receiving yards, 2 TDs
The Eagles drafted for need in the first round after an unprecedented wave of injuries demolished their receiver corps in 2019, and due to the uncertain future of Alshon Jeffery.
Reagor's a dynamic playmaker and explosive return man who profiles as more of an inconsistent weapon rather than a full-time star in the pros. His route running isn't technical enough for him to excel in the slot and he hasn't shown the ability to beat press coverage on the outside. His production also dropped off dramatically in his final year at TCU, despite playing against a lower level of competition.
While this is a good pick for the Eagles' offense on the whole due to its lack of speed behind DeSean Jackson, keep your expectations for Reagor in check. He could get off to a slow start like JJ Arcega-Whiteside did in his disappointing rookie campaign. Reagor will be a late-round target at best in redraft leagues, unless the team moves on from Jeffery before Week 1.
Stock Up: Jalen Reagor, Carson Wentz
Stock Down: Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a
2020 projection: 49 receptions, 681 receiving yards, 4 TDs
There's nothing particularly exciting about Jefferson being drafted to a Minnesota team built around the run. He'll slide into Stefon Diggs' former role, but Jefferson isn't the same type of player. The rookie actually profiles a lot closer to his new teammate Adam Thielen's skill set - he has great hands and excels on his snaps out of the slot.
Jefferson posted an absurd 91% catch rate en route to 111 receptions, 1,540 yards, and 18 touchdowns last season at LSU. However, those numbers were inflated thanks to a great scheme and strong quarterback play.
While Jefferson has all the tools to be a high-volume NFL producer, he's about to encounter the same problem that forced Diggs out of Minnesota - a lack of targets. His arrival also hurts the rest of the Vikings' pass-catchers. Thielen will likely play more on the outside - the area of the field where he's less efficient. Irv Smith Jr. and Kyle Rudolph fall further down the depth chart.
Stock Up: Kirk Cousins
Stock Down: Adam Thielen, Irv Smith Jr., Kyle Rudolph
Star potential: a...a...a...aa
2020 projection: 43 receptions, 649 receiving yards, 4 TDs
Incoming offensive prospects dream of ending up with the 49ers, where Kyle Shanahan has a track record of getting the most out of his players. Aiyuk's versatile with big-play ability, but he'll need to evolve in order to reach his peak in the NFL. Expanding and refining his route tree will be the first thing to address, and he'll have to learn how to confront press coverage. If he can upgrade in those areas, he could be a productive asset across from Deebo Samuel.
Aiyuk just underwent core muscle surgery, and though he should be healthy in time for training camp, it's unknown if the procedure will affect his rookie outlook. What we do know is San Francisco is searching for another playmaker at receiver and Aiyuk has the inside track on the job, significantly increasing his fantasy value. He should be on your list of high-upside, late-round targets.
Stock Up: Brandon Aiyuk, Jimmy Garoppolo
Stock Down: Jalen Hurd, Dante Pettis, Kendrick Bourne
Star potential: a...a...a...aa
2020 projection: Will back up Aaron Rodgers at least two years
History repeats itself, as the Packers wisely begin preparing for life without Aaron Rodgers by drafting his potential successor in the same way the two-time MVP was brought in to learn under Brett Favre.
Love is a natural thrower who flashes elite arm talent at times, but he struggles with decision-making. He'll be a project for Matt LaFleur's coaching staff, and spending a couple of seasons studying one of the greatest to ever play the position is excellent for his quarterback education.
It's also good news for the long-term fantasy outlook of 27-year-old star wideout Davante Adams, since it improves his chances of having a quality starter replace Rodgers down the road.
Stock Up: Jordan Love, Davante Adams
Stock Down: None
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a...
2020 projection: 214 carries, 984 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 2 FUMs
41 receptions, 278 receiving yards, 1 TD
With the final pick in the first round, the defending champs had the luxury to go in several directions but elected to give Patrick Mahomes another weapon on offense.
Damien Williams, who performed extremely well when healthy, was a limited player benefiting from an outstanding situation. Now Edwards-Helaire will have a chance to show what a more talented running back can do when defenses are focused on slowing down the Chiefs' passing attack.
Edwards-Helaire is a compact three-down rusher with excellent receiving skills, and he's coming off a monster season at LSU. He's extremely quick and dynamic in space, so expect the Chiefs to take advantage of his route running. It's not hyperbole to say Edwards-Helaire has top-12 fantasy upside in this offense even as a rookie, though he's likely to fall just outside of that range in my next update.
Stock Up: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Stock Down: Damien Williams, Darwin Thompson, DeAndre Washington
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