Justin Herbert 2020 player props: Unders across the board

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Over the past two days, we've dug into this season's player props for Joe Burrow, as well as the totals set for Tua Tagovailoa.

Today we dive into the numbers for the third quarterback taken in the 2020 draft, Justin Herbert. As was the case with Burrow and Tua, these bets are only actionable if Herbert starts Week 1.

With Tyrod Taylor penciled in as the Los Angeles Chargers' starter, there's hardly a guarantee Herbert wins the starting job out of camp. However, the former Oregon quarterback impressed teams with his maturity and leadership during Senior Bowl week, so it's certainly within the realm of possibility.

Operating under the assumption that he does win the job, here's a look at the lines set by oddsmakers for his rookie season.

Over/Under 3,400 passing yards

At first glance, the over here would appear a given. Philip Rivers threw for at least 3,600 yards in each of the last 12 seasons as Chargers starter, registering at least 4,000 in 11 of them. However, in his first two seasons as the starter, Rivers came in under this number.

There's a steep learning curve for quarterbacks in the NFL, especially for guys like Herbert who thrive in certain climates. Herbert excels as a rhythm passer, but when he doesn't get a clean pocket to operate out of, things can get ugly, quick.

That's likely going to be an issue in Los Angeles. PFF had the Chargers as the league's 29th-rated offensive line last season. The last time the team received a pass-blocking grade higher than 26th was 2014. Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner were brought in to bolster the offensive line, but the former is often injured and the latter came in at the expense of Russell Okung, who was shipped off to the Panthers.

Only eight rookie quarterbacks in the past 10 years have surpassed this total. Six others have fallen in the 3,100-3,400 range, which feels like an appropriate range for Herbert - the same as Rivers' first two seasons as a starter - as he adjusts to life in the NFL.

Pick: Under

Over/Under 21 passing touchdowns

While Herbert will have a plethora of options to target in Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Hunter Henry, downfield shots might not be as abundant for the rookie. Running back Jaylon Redd was second on Oregon in receptions last season, so we could see plenty of short passes to Austin Ekeler, who can expect a heavy workload.

In order to be successful in the red zone, a quarterback has to trust his arm and trust his reads, fitting the ball into tight windows. The field shrinks once you get inside the 20-yard line and everything becomes more congested. This isn't an area Herbert thrives in - more on that below.

Only six rookie quarterbacks have thrown 22 or more touchdown passes in the last 10 seasons, and this number simply feels too high. Rivers (though admittedly in a down season) threw just 23 touchdowns on 591 attempts in 2019. Don't expect Herbert - who won't be asked to throw the ball nearly as much - to come close to replicating that sort of production.

Pick: Under

Over/Under 17.5 interceptions

Herbert isn't much of a risk-taker. He struggles with reading progressions and doesn't trust his decision-making as a result, often leading him to choose the safe throw. One of the knocks on him is that he needs to be more aggressive - less afraid to make mistakes - to have success in the NFL.

That timid nature should help him limit turnovers, at least. DeShone Kizer is the only rookie quarterback in the last six years to throw 18 or more interceptions, and there have been just three in the last 10 years (Kizer, Geno Smith, Andrew Luck).

Pick: Under

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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