Patrick Mahomes 2020 props: Bet over on yards, under on TDs
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It took only two years for Patrick Mahomes to blow the top off even the highest of expectations. And that makes projecting his year-to-year statistics extremely difficult.
Mahomes has thrown for more than 9,000 yards and 76 touchdowns during his last two regular seasons (30 starts). Those numbers become even more ridiculous when you acknowledge we've yet to see the 24-year-old at his peak.
As Mahomes looks to take another step toward superstardom, let's look at the Kansas City Chiefs wunderkind's projections for the 2020 season.
Passing yards| Over | Under |
|---|---|
| 4525.5 (-110) | 4525.5 (-110) |
We can add context to player performance by using strength of schedule. In his first full season, Mahomes threw for 5,097 yards (318.6 per game) and 50 touchdowns. Combining the total pass defense DVOA ranks of all the opponents the Chiefs played, the average unit Mahomes faced ranked around 14th in the league. That's solid.
Last season, the average DVOA defense he played ranked closer to 19th. Likely due to a combination of injuries and the league making adjustments for the Chiefs' firepower, Mahomes was worse in 14 full starts (288 yards per game) despite facing a lighter schedule.
This year's strength of the schedule falls between those at around 17th. We feel his overall numbers will be closer to those of Year 1 rather than last season.
Additionally, Mahomes' supporting cast should continue to improve - a scary thought. Tyreek Hill recorded only 860 yards in 12 games in 2019, his fewest since his rookie campaign; the talented but oft-injured Sammy Watkins averaged just four catches in 14 starts; Mecole Hardman was a rookie and should be used more frequently during his sophomore year; and, as elite as Travis Kelce was, he still fell more than 100 yards shy of his total from 2018.
If Mahomes stays healthy, Kansas City's offense is just too good for him to stay below the number.
Pick: Over
Passing touchdowns| Over | Under |
|---|---|
| 35.5 (-110) | 35.5 (-110) |
If you watch a compilation of Mahomes' touchdowns in 2018, you'll see that defenses had no idea how to stop the Chiefs' offense. Call it a gimmick offense or defenses not knowing Mahomes' tendencies - or both - but 10 touchdowns came via screen or shovel pass, while seven more came with zero defenders seven-plus yards away from the intended receiver. Though the sample size was smaller in 2019, Mahomes had to work for most of his scores.
Marking down Mahomes for a season with 35 or fewer touchdowns feels foolish, but he'll never have it as easy as he did two years ago.
Pick: Under
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.
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