Dak Prescott props: Is the Cowboys QB due for regression in 2020?
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Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is coming off the best season of his career after throwing for 4,902 yards and 30 touchdowns. Following such a strong year, Prescott's 2020 props are set high by oddsmakers.
Will Dak's upward trend continue or is he due for a regression? We break down his 2020 player props to find out.
Passing yards| Over | Under |
|---|---|
| 4400.5 (-110) | 4400.5 (-110) |
Prescott shattered this total by over 500 yards last season, so it may seem like an easy over. However, Dak had failed to reach 4,000 yards in his first three seasons and he attempted 592 passes in 2019 - by far a career high.
Including Prescott, only five quarterbacks topped this total last season. But new Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy is a pass-first guy and Dallas added another weapon when the team drafted receiver CeeDee Lamb. The trio of Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup gives Prescott one of the NFL's most talented trio of receivers.
This number is right on the money for Prescott. He certainly has the supporting cast to hit the over, but in the last two years, only nine quarterbacks have eclipsed this total. Expect a slight regression from Prescott in 2020, as he falls short of 4,400 yards.
Pick: Under
Passing touchdowns| Over | Under |
|---|---|
| 27.5 (-115) | 27.5 (-105) |
Dak went over this total last year with 30 passing touchdowns, but again, that was easily his career high. Over his first three seasons, Prescott posted 23, 22, and 22 touchdowns, respectively. Dak was one of only four quarterbacks to surpass this number last season, but 10 threw for 29 or more TDs in 2018. If you go back to McCarthy's days with the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers threw a lot of short touchdown passes inside the red zone. That could be the deciding factor here with Prescott.
Prescott also has room for improvement in this category. He ranked 12th in touchdown percentage last season, which is the percentage of touchdowns when attempting a pass. Look for Prescott's career trajectory of touchdown passes to continue rising as he throws for 30+ in 2020.
Pick: Over
Most regular-season passing yards| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +500 |
| Dak Prescott | +650 |
| Matt Ryan | +800 |
| Philip Rivers | +850 |
| Tom Brady | +950 |
| Jared Goff | +1000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1200 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | +1300 |
| Drew Brees | +1300 |
| Russell Wilson | +1800 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1900 |
| Baker Mayfield | +1900 |
| Carson Wentz | +1900 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +2200 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2200 |
| Kyler Murray | +2500 |
Odds for players +2500 and shorter
Here is where Prescott is overvalued. While he finished second in passing yards last season behind Jameis Winston, keep in mind he posted career-best numbers; Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethlisberger all missed time with injuries. Prescott may be in the mix again this season, but his odds are too short given the stiff competition. Fade Prescott in favor of players with longer odds like Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and Deshaun Watson.
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.
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