Why can’t Hamilton reopen with most of the rest of the province Friday?

Hamilton was excluded from the majority of reopening Friday partly because of a spike of COVID-19 cases among twentysomethings that is continuing today.

I can understand the thinking behind it in terms of the kinds of issues we're experiencing right now," medical officer of health Dr. Elizabeth Richardson, said about the province's decision to hold Hamilton back from the stage two reopening.

We do know we've had this increase of cases in a particular age group."

The exclusion comes at the same time the city's death toll rose to 42 with the outbreak at the Rosslyn Retirement Residence claiming another life.

Christopher Donald Maslen died in hospital Monday. The death of the 68-year-old man brought the city's deadliest outbreak to 14 lives lost.

Richardson's reaction to the exclusion is a far cry from leaders in Halton, Niagara and Haldimand and Norfolk who oppose being stuck in stage one with Toronto, Peel, Durham, York, Windsor Essex and Lambton County.

The mayors of Haldimand and Norfolk got haircuts outside town hall in Simcoe on Tuesday in protest. Niagara's public health department said it wasn't consulted and only learned of the decision when it was announced Monday. Halton's mayors and regional chair sent the premier a letter.

We would urge you to reconsider allowing Halton Region to transition to Phase 2 of the reopening, as our case numbers remain low, our hospitals have capacity and our contact tracing is at the provincially required levels," states the letter.

Prominent Hamilton infectious disease experts said they see no good reason for Hamilton to be excluded from stage two which includes a long list of reopenings such as: haircuts, spas, malls, restaurant and bar patios, libraries, community centres, galleries, museums, day camps, training for outdoor sports teams, splash pads and pools, beaches, tours such as bike, walking and bus, wedding sites and drive-in or drive-thru venues for theatres, concerts, animal attractions and art installations.

I was surprised," said Dr. Mark Loeb, the Michael G. DeGroote chair in infectious diseases at McMaster University.

I think it would be very valuable if the province made it clear what the criteria were in terms of the measurements they are using for that determination," he said. That would help people to understand the rationale for that decision-making. Many people are uncertain as to what exactly is being used to make these decisions."

Halton and Hamilton both are in the same or better shape than other places allowed to open such as Waterloo, said Dr. Dominik Mertz, associate professor in the division of infectious diseases at McMaster.

I would like to understand it," he said. I would have appreciated transparent messaging on how this decision was made."

Mertz's best guess is that Halton and Hamilton are victims of geography.

They wanted to avoid too many people from the GTA flocking to Hamilton," he said. Also, Hamilton and Halton are stuck between the GTA and Niagara and Haldimand and Norfolk which both have their outbreaks with the migrant workers right now to deal with."

Mertz points out that Hamilton is doing quite well" with generally less than five new cases a day. There were three new cases Tuesday to bring the total to 745 probable and confirmed.

I doubt that we'll be any lower than that in summer or fall because this will not stop," he said. Optimally, we will remain on a low burn in terms of the number of cases. It looks very stable."

He also expressed some skepticism about the spike in cases among young adults being used to hold Hamilton back from reopening. About 43 per cent of new cases in the last 10 days have been among those age 20 to 29.

Keep in mind the twenty-year olds don't affect our hospital capacity typically so that piece can't have been the reason to say Hamilton doesn't have the hospital capacity to deal with an increase in cases," said Mertz. That can't be the issue here."

Mertz is in favour of the regional approach but said the controversy shows it's not black or white where you draw the line in the sand and say, You are safe to move forward and you are not yet' because there are many factors playing into it."

He added, To me the biggest single most important metric that we need to have an eye on is making sure that we don't see a surge in hospitals that we can't cope with anymore. I would say in all of those regions, maybe other than the GTA, that's the case."

Both Richardson and Hamilton Mayor Fred Eisenberger said they were consulted before the decision to exclude Hamilton was made.

The decision will be reviewed every Monday with an eye to opening the following Friday.

Joanna Frketich is a Hamilton-based reporter covering health for The Spectator. Reach her via email: jfrketich@thespec.com