Chiefs 2020 player props: Buy Mahomes, sell Kelce

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There isn't an offense in the NFL more fun to break down than the Kansas City Chiefs'.

The franchise encapsulates what a modern unit should look like: athletic, explosive, and flat-out dominant. That blueprint helped the Chiefs win the Super Bowl last year, their first since 1970.

Will Kansas City experience a hangover in 2020, or continue setting records behind all-world quarterback Patrick Mahomes? Let's dive into the player props for the upcoming season, including which way we're leaning.

Patrick Mahomes - O/U 4,525.5 passing yards

Over: -110
Under: -110

Mahomes set the bar high in 2018, throwing for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns. He didn't have quite the encore last season, posting 4,031 yards and 26 scores while missing a couple of games due to injury.

Mahomes' passing total for the 2020 season is right in the middle of those two totals. Here's why I like the over.

Game script is irrelevant when handicapping the Chiefs. Whether they're favored by 14 points or getting 14 points, Kansas City will throw the ball at will. The offense finished in the top 10 in pass play frequency in each of the last two seasons with Mahomes as the starter despite owning the best two-year average scoring margin in the league (+9.2).

The Chiefs throw the ball, whether they're leading or trailing. And that's a scary thought for under bettors.

Not only will Mahomes have the volume to go over the total, but he'll also get a bump from his supporting cast. Outside of Travis Kelce and his 97-catch, 1,229-yard 2019 campaign, just about every other member of the skill corps is set for improvement.

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill bagged just 58 receptions for 870 yards last season after missing four games with a shoulder injury, both his lowest clips since his rookie campaign. He's still only 26 years old and is always a threat to surpass the 1,000-yard mark.

The talented yet oft-injured Sammy Watkins was also a bright spot with 52 catches for 653 yards, but he once again couldn't go a full season. Second-year speedster Mecole Hardman could be another home run hitter, while the backfield has a lot more depth with first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire joining the fray.

This is the most stacked unit in football, and one that'll help Mahomes cruise past his total.

Pick: Over

Travis Kelce - O/U 1,225.5 receiving yards

Over: +100
Under: -130

Kelce has his sights set on five straight 1,000-yard seasons, and odds are he'll pull it off. But I'm stumped at how much higher his ceiling can go.

Last season, Kelce was No. 1 at his position in snap share, red-zone receptions, and fantasy points per game while ranking No. 2 in targets, catches, air yards, and yards after the catch. He also had the highest contested-catch rate of any tight end in the NFL at 48.3% and still put up more than 1,200 yards.

Don't be surprised if Kelce leads the team in receptions again; he's recorded 200 since the start of the 2018 season. However, expect more balance throughout the Chiefs' offense this fall, which will put Kelce comfortably under the total.

Pick: Under

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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