Should bettors fear the 'Hard Knocks' curse with Rams, Chargers?
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
On Thursday, we learned the Los Angeles Chargers and Los Angeles Rams will both be featured on HBO's "Hard Knocks," the first time two teams will share the stage in the summer documentary series.
This year's version will undoubtedly look a little different - both with two subjects and with restrictions amid the COVID-19 pandemic - but bettors can still take note of how past teams performed under the bright lights. Is the "Hard Knocks" curse a real thing?
Here's how each featured team has fared relative to preseason expectations since the show was first broadcast in 2001:
| YEAR | TEAM | WIN TOTAL | RECORD | PLAYOFFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Los Angeles Chargers | 7.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 2020 | Los Angeles Rams | 8.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 | Oakland Raiders | 6 | 7-9 | No |
| 2018 | Cleveland Browns | 6 | 7-8-1 | No |
| 2017 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.5 | 5-11 | No |
| 2016 | Los Angeles Rams | 7.5 | 4-12 | No |
| 2015 | Houston Texans | 8.5 | 9-7 | Wild-card round |
| 2014 | Atlanta Falcons | 8.5 | 6-10 | No |
| 2013 | Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 | 11-5 | Wild-card round |
| 2012 | Miami Dolphins | 7 | 7-9 | No |
| 2010 | New York Jets | 9.5 | 11-5 | AFC Championship Game |
| 2009 | Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | 10-6 | Wild-card round |
| 2008 | Dallas Cowboys | 10.5 | 9-7 | No |
| 2007 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 | 4-12 | No |
| 2002 | Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 5-11 | No |
| 2001 | Baltimore Ravens | 11 | 10-6 | Divisional round |
(2020 odds source: theScore Bet)
A 'Hard Knocks' lifeYou wouldn't know it from basic win total data - teams have gone 7-6-1 to the under after appearing on "Hard Knocks" - but overall, few teams have been factors in the postseason.
The 14 teams featured on the show had an average win total of eight but combined for just three playoff wins, and nine of the teams missed the postseason altogether. Only the 2001 Ravens and 2010 Jets found any success in the playoffs, and both were coming off deep runs the year prior.
For teams in the Chargers' and Rams' range, the results have been even worse. Six teams entered the year with a preseason total between 7.5 and 8.5 wins. Four of the six fell short of their win total by a combined 13 games, and none of the six won a playoff contest.
That group includes the 2016 Rams, perhaps the most high-profile bust in the show's history. The team had just moved from St. Louis to Los Angeles and entered the season with lofty expectations after trading up for No. 1 pick Jared Goff in that year's draft. Instead, the team won just four games over a miserable campaign, which included Jeff Fisher getting canned after a blowout loss in Week 14.
Maybe it's all coincidence. Maybe the fine folks at HBO just have an eye for personnel drama, which naturally lends itself to dysfunctional seasons. That said, the Rams and Chargers are both entering transition periods with their respective rosters, so they're prime candidates for the type of disappointment we've seen with past participants.
So perhaps think twice before laying money on either of the two L.A. teams, who will likely become hot betting commodities during the height of the show. The cameras haven't been a harbinger of success.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
Copyright (C) 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.