Raiders 2020 player props: Jacobs will sail over yards total

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The Las Vegas Raiders' offense deserves some serious credit.

Entering the 2019 season, quarterback Derek Carr was leading a cast featuring two rookies (running back Josh Jacobs and receiver Hunter Renfrow), a new No. 1 wideout (Tyrell Williams), and a tight end whom the Raiders had recently signed off the practice squad (Darren Waller).

The result was the league's No. 9 offense in DVOA - better than the Vikings, Patriots, Texans, Falcons, and others. Jacobs exploded on to the scene and finished second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting, while Waller enjoyed a true breakout season.

Las Vegas' offense will have to be just as good, if not better, in 2020 for the club to stay above water in a competitive AFC West.

Here, we'll dive into the top player prop currently available and offer a warning heading into the new season.

Josh Jacobs - Over/Under 1,575.5 scrimmage yards

Over: -115
Under: -115

Jacobs didn't disappoint in his rookie season. Over just 13 games, he netted 1,150 yards and seven scores on the ground and 160 more yards through the air.

Las Vegas' game script is tailor-made for Jacobs.

Teams consistently trailing typically air it out, but the Raiders were a different story. The club ranked No. 27 in the NFL last season in average scoring margin (-6.6) yet clocked in at No. 8 in run-play frequency. That should scare any bettor wanting to go under on Jacobs' total, considering the number of touches he has in store.

The offense is going to filter around the running back, and the coaching staff showed last season that it wants to keep the ball on the ground, whether ahead or behind.

This is a layup.

Pick: Over

Darren Waller

Waller doesn't have any props available, but he's a player I'm worried about in 2020. You usually have to pump the brakes when a tight end fresh off the practice squad amasses 90 catches and 1,145 yards in his first cup of coffee as a pro.

At times, Waller felt like the only pass-catcher on the field. He finished with a 23.8% target share, which was No. 4 in the league among tight ends.

A lot of that had to do with the overall depth of the supporting cast - Williams missed two games due to injury, while Renfrow and Jacobs were each sidelined for three. Now, with first-round receiver Henry Ruggs III also joining the fold, will Waller see enough targets? He only registered a hog rate of 13.5%, which ranked 14th among tight ends last season.

If there's any caveat, it's that the 27-year-old is probably due for some positive regression in the touchdown column. Of the 12 tight ends to record 50-plus receptions in 2019, Waller was one of only three to bag three scores or fewer.

But another 1,145-yard campaign isn't in the cards. Waller's catches and yards will be inflated in 2020, at least early on.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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