Stanley Cup odds update: Big moves following preliminary round
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Since the play-in series and round-robin games concluded, there have been some significant shifts on the Stanley Cup oddsboard.
Oddsmakers have reacted quite strongly, but we'll have to wait and see how much stock we should put into these games.
Were the adjustments necessary, or have they opened up value in the market for bettors?
| TEAM | ODDS (8/11) | ODDS (7/28) |
|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | +550 | +800 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +600 | +700 |
| Colorado Avalanche | +650 | +800 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +700 | +4000 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +800 | +400 |
| Boston Bruins | +900 | +400 |
| St. Louis Blues | +1000 | +1000 |
| Washington Capitals | +1200 | +900 |
| Dallas Stars | +1600 | +1200 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | +1800 | +6000 |
| Calgary Flames | +2000 | +3000 |
| New York Islanders | +2200 | +4000 |
| Vancouver Canucks | +2600 | +3000 |
| Montreal Canadiens | +3000 | +12500 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +3200 | +6000 |
| Arizona Coyotes | +3400 | +4000 |
Oddsmakers noted the Knights' unbeaten record in the qualifying round, making them Cup favorites after securing first seed in the West. There's no real value at this price, but this number is only going to shorten as the playoffs progress. Similarly, the Flyers shortened to +600 after claiming the top spot in the East, but we could see a better price there soon with strong showings from the Lightning and Bruins.
Carolina Hurricanes (+700)I recommended hopping on the Hurricanes train before the NHL returned, and then did so again a few days later, before their first play-in game. Both of those times, the Hurricanes were sitting at +4000. Their dominant showing against the Rangers depleted their line value completely, but you can probably wait for a better one in their next - and likely tighter - series with the Bruins. I've heavily invested in Carolina, but not at this price.
Tampa Bay Lightning (+800)Falling short of the No. 1 seed probably bumped them back from a +400 open a bit, but Victor Hedman and Steven Stamkos' injuries are what really impacted this line. If you're interested, snap it up now because it won't be available for long.
Boston Bruins (+900)The round-robin stage had the most negative impact on the Bruins, who slumped to an 0-3 finish. But the overreaction to a few glorified exhibition games is a little harsh. This experienced group is worth backing at the current price, and there shouldn't be any concern about Boston's ability to ramp up the intensity ahead of Round 1.
Chicago Blackhawks (+1800)The Blackhawks' date with the top-ranked Knights isn't scaring oddsmakers, who have seen their odds shorten from 60-1 to 18-1 following their play-in win over the Oilers. Chicago led the round with 16 goals despite just 9.7 expected goals for, and allowed a league-high 71 high-danger scoring chances. But that's just not going to cut it against Vegas. Don't waste your money at this price.
Montreal Canadiens (+3000)The Canadiens had by far the longest odds to win the Cup before the play-in round began, more than double the next closest team at 125-1. Their upset of the Penguins impressed oddsmakers, reasonably giving them the biggest move before Round 1 begins. The Habs' triumph was more than just Carey Price standing on his head - their youngsters' emergence resulted in strong depth down the middle, while their big three on defense were well-equipped to carry the load. This price is a fairer representation of Montreal's chances.
Columbus Blue Jackets (+3200)There's still a ton of value in backing the Blue Jackets at 32-1. This team is built for playoff hockey, with excellent goaltending, a defense that excels at limiting quality chances against, and a relentless forecheck that stresses opposing teams out. This price should be closer to 20-1.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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