Cowboys win total preview: The best play on the entire board
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If I could bet only one win total for the 2020 NFL season, I wouldn't think twice about the play.
The Dallas Cowboys have been on my radar ever since the horn sounded on their Week 17 regular-season finale. The additions - and subtractions - they've made to the roster and coaching staff over that span only support my stance.
Here's why the over is the best play on the entire board.
| How Many Games Will the Cowboys Win? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | -140 |
| Under 9.5 | +120 |
The Cowboys' 2019 season literally makes no sense.
The squad finished the year No. 6 in total DVOA, No. 5 in point differential, and No. 2 in offense DVOA.
So how does a team with that much success finish .500 and miss the playoffs? Timely losses are probably to blame - Dallas went a miserable 1-6 in one-score games and suffered four defeats by four points or fewer.
The Cowboys settled for an 8-8 record but should have collected 11.2 victories, based on Pythagorean wins. To say they left some wins on the table would be an understatement.
Offense is keyQuarterback Dak Prescott and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore were a two-man wrecking crew in 2019. The Cowboys finished No. 1 in yards per play and No. 4 in explosive play rate thanks to a skill corps that was lights out.
Running back Ezekiel Elliott bagged over 1,700 scrimmage yards with 14 touchdowns, and he'll be behind an offensive line that's among the best in the NFL.
Wideouts Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup posted 1,189 and 1,107 receiving yards, respectively, while being top 10 in the league in yards per route run. Cooper is rated the eighth-best receiver overall, per PFF.
Former Oklahoma standout CeeDee Lamb joins the offense in 2020, and adding a speed demon who can pick up yards after the catch alongside two physical freaks in Cooper and Gallup should terrify opposing defenses.
Light scheduleSkill position YAC leaders since 2017:
- PFF College (@PFF_College) August 16, 2020
WR: Ceedee Lamb - 1,666
RB: Max Borghi - 1,241
TE: Brycen Hopkins - 827 pic.twitter.com/X2h5qd127H
I love how the schedule lines up for the Cowboys. If we take last year's opponents' combined win-loss records (117-138-1), they face the third-easiest schedule in the league. If we go by the combined opponents' win totals for the current year, they still have among the top-10 easiest routes.
No matter how you slice it, Dallas should easily reach the 10-win mark - as long as they don't falter in close games for the second straight year.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.
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