Browns win total preview: It's OK to believe again

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Few teams were more disappointing last year than the Cleveland Browns, who finished 6-10 after beginning the season with Super Bowl aspirations. Now, they head into 2020 with a similar win total and improved roster. Is this finally the year?

WINS	ODDS
Over 8.5	-110
Under 8.5	-110

A look back

The Browns started things with a rough 30-point loss in Week 1, and they never got much better. Cleveland lost six of its first eight games and effectively killed any playoff hopes with a three-game losing streak to end the year.

But it wasn't all bad - the Browns were one of the only two teams to beat the Baltimore Ravens in the regular season. They did go 1-4 in games decided by seven points or less, but a team's clutch performance usually improves when its roster plays together over time.

A better Baker

A key reason why bettors were so optimistic about the Browns entering last year - and why the team inevitably flopped - was Baker Mayfield's playing ability. After a dazzling rookie season, he crashed in 2019, finishing 19th in ESPN's and QBR (52.8) and 31st in passer rating (78.8).

However, some things weren't his fault. The Browns' offensive line was a disaster all year, which is especially damaging for a rhythm passer like Mayfield, one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks under pressure. Cleveland invested heavily in fixing that this offseason, signing Jack Conklin to a big-money deal, and spending a first-round pick on Jedrick Wills Jr.

A new scheme should also do wonders. Incoming head coach Kevin Stefanski squeezed every ounce of talent out of Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins - who led the NFL last year in average time to attempt (2.83 seconds) - behind a heavy dose of play-action. He should be able to do the same with Mayfield.

Too much talent

If the O-line is even marginally better than it was last year, and it's hard to imagine that not being the case, the rest of the offense will fall in line. The team's receiving corps - which added Pro Bowl tight end Austin Hooper this summer - is full of talent, but never got the chance to shine with Mayfield scrambling around. Nick Chubb is one of the NFL's best running backs and could lead the league in rushing behind a better front five.

Cleveland's defense disappointed last year, but it was hardly at full strength. All-Pro edge rusher Myles Garrett missed the final six games due to his suspension, while the talented cornerback duo of Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams missed four games each with injuries. This unit is young and full of upside, and there isn't much room to perform worse than a year ago.

Again, the biggest X-factor is coaching. Freddie Kitchens and Co. squandered the benefit of having gifted players with horrible play-calling last year, so Stefanski only needs a passable campaign to note some improvement. Based on his track record in Minnesota, that won't be an issue.

Best bet

Look, if you were burned by the Browns last season, I feel your pain. But don't let old wounds blind you in a new year. The needed skill level was there, but two glaring weaknesses - offensive line and coaching staff - held this team back from their potential. And yet, Cleveland still finished with six victories in a year when everything went wrong. This win total is right on the nose heading into 2020, but there's too much talent and positive regression ahead not to bet the over.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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