49ers win total preview: Fade 2019's most-improved team
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The San Francisco 49ers were the NFL's most improved team last season.
The defending NFC champions ranked No. 5 in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) a year after slotting in at No. 30. They won the NFC West at 13-3 after notching only four victories in 2018.
Is San Francisco an easy buy for this season? Or will the franchise regress? Let's dive into the Niners' win total for the 2020 campaign.
| How many games will the 49ers win in 2020? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 10.5 | -110 |
| Under 10.5 | -110 |
The 49ers were among the five best teams in 2019, and it wasn't close. They trailed only the Ravens, Patriots, Chiefs, and Saints in DVOA, and were substantially better than the sixth-best team, the Cowboys.
| Team | 2020 Total DVOA |
|---|---|
| Ravens | 41.8% |
| Chiefs | 30.8% |
| Patriots | 30.2% |
| Saints | 29.3% |
| 49ers | 27.9% |
| Cowboys | 17.2% |
The 49ers' defense was as solid as you could ask, finishing No. 1 against the pass, No. 2 in defensive DVOA, and No. 3 in sacks. However, after holding six of the club's first eight opponents under the team total, five of the final eight went over.
San Francisco's offense was simple but effective. Head coach Kyle Shanahan kept the ball on the ground 51.39% of the time, which trailed only Baltimore in run-play frequency. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo passed for 3,978 yards with 27 touchdowns for the league's No. 7 offense in DVOA.
The 49ers were a bit lucky last season, though, as estimated wins and Pythagorean wins both projected them for 12 victories in 2019, a full win less than their actual mark.
Burning questionsCan San Francisco score if it has to rely on Garoppolo? Last season, the 49ers ranked No. 5 in time of possession while frequently racing out to big leads. If they don't benefit from those luxuries in 2020, beware.
Tight end George Kittle is the linchpin of the skill-position corps, but the team's receivers need to step up. And with Emmanuel Sanders gone, Deebo Samuel currently nursing a broken foot, and rookie Brandon Aiyuk recently leaving practice with an injury of his own, that may be easier said than done.
And how far will the defense drop off, if it does? San Francisco was vastly underrated with coordinator Robert Saleh calling the shots. The 49ers registered a plus-four turnover margin, finished with three edge rushers in PFF's top 20, and employed the best cover corner in the league in Richard Sherman. Can they sustain that production for the second straight season?
Best betOf all the contenders from last season, the 49ers worry me the most.
They'll play a schedule featuring the third-toughest slate of run defenses, which doesn't bode well for a run-heavy offense. I don't trust Garoppolo if he's forced to shoulder a larger load.
On the flip side, the defense will face the fourth-toughest schedule of rushing offenses. The one area in which the unit struggled in 2019 was against the run while allowing 106 yards per game (No. 12).
In the division, the Seahawks are always dangerous, the Cardinals will improve, and the Rams are no slouch. The 49ers won't touch double-digit wins in 2020.
Pick: Under 10.5
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.
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