NHL playoff picks: Bold enough to bet an under in the West?
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We were 1:26 away from a perfect 2-0 Tuesday night before a meaningless Max Pacioretty goal killed the under. That's a good way to go to bed angry.
We have our first three-game slate of Round 2 on Wednesday, so we've got a bit more to choose from.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) @ Boston Bruins (-110)The Lightning were good value for the Game 2 win, controlling the play for the majority of the game against the Bruins. They were robbed of the first goal by an offside challenge before Boston opened the scoring shortly after with a controversial goal of its own.
Still, the Lightning showed their mettle by battling through adversity to win a critical game and tie the series. And it's no less than they deserved in a game in which they controlled 67.69% of the expected goal share (3.69 to 1.76) and 68.08% of the share at five-on-five.
Tampa is in a nice position heading into Game 3 with its relatively youthful roster. The Bruins have an older team and there should be legitimate concerns over how 42-year-old Zdeno Chara, who needed to sit games out in the playoffs last season, and 34-year-old Jaroslav Halak, who hasn't been a regular starter in years, handle playing on consecutive nights. The Lightning were 8-2-2 in back-to-backs this season while the Bruins were 5-6-1, including a loss to Tampa earlier in the campaign and another against the Hurricanes in Round 1.
Pick: Lightning (-110)
Colorado Avalanche (-140) @ Dallas Stars (+120)We're going back to the well with the under here. Game 2 ended up comfortably over the total despite just two goals being scored at five-on-five. Both teams scored twice on the power play and the Stars added an empty netter. They combined to go 0-for-3 on the power play in Game 1 before combining to go 4-for-11 in Game 2.
I wouldn't expect either unit to get as much work or find the same success on the man advantage Wednesday. Game 1 saw a total of 3.39 expected goals at five-on-five and Game 2 had 3.23, yet both flew over the total. Part of that can be attributed to the Avalanche struggling to get serviceable goaltending, but Pavel Francouz is a lot better than he's shown in this series, and with their backs against the wall, expect a much stronger defensive showing from the Avs in Game 3.
With the Stars being the home team, they get last change for the first time in this series, and the ability to control the matchups will play into their defensive mindset. We've been treated to a lot of goals in this series, but regression is imminent, and it begins tonight.
Pick: Under 5.5 (-110)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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