Ranking the NFL's worst-to-first candidates in 2020
Within an ever-competitive NFL landscape, numerous last-place clubs have reversed course to capture division crowns the following year. While there were no such instances in 2019, at least one team skyrocketed from worst to first in each of the previous four seasons.
As we turn our attention to the upcoming campaign, here's every last-place team from 2019 ranked according to their chances of winning the division this time around.
8. Carolina Panthers2019 record: 5-11
Notable moves:
- Signed QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR Robby Anderson, LB Tahir Whitehead, CB Eli Apple, DE Stephen Weatherly
- Traded for OT Russell Okung
- Drafted DT Derrick Brown, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, S Jeremy Chinn
Carolina hired former Baylor boss Matt Rhule in January to replace Ron Rivera after nine campaigns as head coach. Rhule is an ideal leader to see the Panthers through a rebuild, but he'll have his work cut out in Year 1.
The most significant change under Rhule will come at quarterback. Cam Newton was released in March and Teddy Bridgewater was signed as his replacement. Bridgewater hasn't played much since his freak knee injury in 2016 but performed well enough in five 2019 starts with the New Orleans Saints for the Panthers to give him the starting job.
Bridgewater will certainly possess a plethora of weapons, as Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Robby Anderson form an excellent offensive core. However, Carolina's blocking unit offers more questions than answers. A handful of unproven players will compete for both guard spots, so Okung must step up at left tackle.
Carolina's defense figures to rank near the league's basement. Brown, Shaq Thompson, and Brian Burns are solid young pieces, we're just not convinced the unit can truly recover from Luke Kuechly's retirement. There are simply too many areas of concern, especially in the secondary. The Panthers are extremely thin at cornerback behind underwhelming starters Apple and Donte Jackson.
The NFC South also promises to be extremely competitive. The Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Super Bowl contenders, while the Atlanta Falcons feature their usual combination of offensive firepower and defensive speed. There's virtually no chance that Rhule's squad can unseat all three division rivals in 2020.
7. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Robbins / Getty Images Sport / Getty2019 record: 2-14
Notable moves:
- Signed DT D.J. Reader, CB Trae Waynes, DT Mike Daniels, S Vonn Bell, CB Mackenzie Alexander, G Xavier Su'a-Filo
- Drafted QB Joe Burrow, WR Tee Higgins
The Andy Dalton era is officially over in Cincinnati. In slots No. 1 pick Joe Burrow after his record-breaking campaign at LSU. The Bengals should improve from their 2-14 finish a year ago, but short of a dominant rookie season from Burrow, they're highly unlikely to beat out two top competitors in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens.
Zac Taylor's squad must revamp its offensive line play to help Burrow succeed, but time will tell if the unit was sufficiently upgraded. Only Su'a-Filo was signed to man the right guard spot, though 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams could be the team's X-factor at left tackle after missing his entire rookie campaign with a torn labrum. Any and all blocking enhancements would be welcome for Joe Mixon, while A.J. Green and John Ross will hope to stay healthy for their new quarterback.
Cincinnati prioritized upgrading its defense this offseason, adding Reader and Daniels to the front four and Waynes, Alexander, and Bell to the secondary. Unfortunately, Waynes is expected to miss most of the year with a torn pectoral and there are still plenty of issues at linebacker. At least Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins lead a deep and productive front four.
Overall, the Bengals' hopes rest on Burrow and the health of his offensive weapons. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is as talented as rookies come, but taking his new team from worst to first in the AFC North seems too tall a task.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars2019 record: 6-10
Notable moves:
- Signed LB Joe Schobert, TE Tyler Eifert, RB Chris Thompson, DT Tim Jernigan
- Drafted CJ Henderson, DE K'Lavon Chaisson, WR Laviska Shenault Jr.
Head coach Doug Marrone and general manager David Caldwell enter a make-or-break year in Jacksonville with one of the league's least talented rosters.
The Jaguars will need quarterback Gardner Minshew to continue his hot streak if they're to be competitive. Minshew surprisingly took the league by storm as a sixth-round rookie, displaying accuracy on the field and flare off it. If DJ Chark continues to be Jacksonville's only consistent weapon, the offense could struggle to keep pace. Leonard Fournette's release certainly won't help matters.
Marrone's defense, once a strong point, will look significantly different in 2020 after the club unloaded Yannick Ngakoue, Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, and Calais Campbell in recent months, Youngsters Henderson, Chaisson, Josh Allen, and Taven Bryan must emerge as part of a new wave of playmakers for the unit. If not, a long campaign lies ahead.
The Jaguars sat atop our list heading into 2019 due in large part to a wide-open AFC South, and the division offers a similar outlook this year. The Houston Texans lost key pieces, while it remains to be seen if the Tennessee Titans can build on their momentum and if the Indianapolis Colts can rebound from a disappointing season. It's anyone's game, but we still aren't excited about Jacksonville's chances.
5. Washington Football Team2019 record: 3-13
Notable moves:
- Signed CB Kendall Fuller, LB Thomas Davis, CB Ronald Darby, TE Logan Thomas, G Wes Schweitzer, WR Dontrelle Inman
- Drafted DE Chase Young, RB Antonio Gibson
It's certainly been a rough year off the field in Washington, but Ron Rivera's squad features an impressive young core on both sides of the ball. This is especially true on the defensive front seven, with Young, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, and Da'Ron Payne leading the charge. Add in veterans Ryan Kerrigan, Matt Ioannidis, and Reuben Foster returning from injury, and the group may be potent enough to compensate for an underwhelming secondary.
On offense, Dwayne Haskins is set to shoulder most of the load after several veterans departed in the spring. Haskins flashed the skills that made him a first-round selection toward the end of his rookie campaign, but he may not have enough supporting talent to spark a giant second-year leap. Terry McLaurin is Washington's only true playmaker, and its offensive line and running game will likely struggle with consistency.
If Haskins breaks out and the defense exceeds expectations, it's not unrealistic for Washington to go from worst to first in the NFC East. The division's last two winners finished with 10 wins or fewer, but the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles figure to be tough competition.
4. Miami Dolphins
Mark Brown / Getty Images Sport / Getty2019 record: 5-11
Notable moves:
- Signed CB Byron Jones, LB Kyle Van Noy, RB Jordan Howard, G Ereck Flowers, DE Shaq Lawson, C Ted Karras
- Traded for RB Matt Breida
- Drafted QB Tua Tagovailoa, OT Austin Jackson, CB Noah Igbinoghene
Few clubs underwent more changes this offseason than the Dolphins. The majority of alterations were made to Brian Flores' defense, which ranked dead last in points allowed. Lawson, Van Noy, and Emmanuel Ogbah and were added to a front seven that amassed a measly 23 sacks, which also ranked 32nd. Meanwhile, Jones and Igbinoghene join a budding secondary that should help the unit take significant strides overall.
Although Miami fans are likely champing at the bit to see Tagovailoa, it appears Ryan Fitzpatrick will enter Week 1 atop the quarterback depth chart. The Dolphins made it a priority to boost their run game, which offered little explosiveness last year. Breida, Howard, and multiple offensive linemen will surely help upgrade a ground attack that averaged a paltry 72 yards per contest.
Still, the Dolphins require a consistent passing attack to compete in their division. DeVante Parker emerged as a downfield threat in 2019, but either Preston Williams or tight end Mike Gesicki must step as a consistent secondary option.
Miami may not boast the most complete roster on this list, but a suddenly wide-open AFC East played a factor in its ranking. The New England Patriots appear destined to decline after an astounding 11 straight division crowns, having lost Tom Brady and a large number of key defensive pieces. The Buffalo Bills may be the new favorites, though a string of productive starts from either Tagovailoa or Fitzpatrick could lead the Fins into contention.
3. Los Angeles Chargers2019 record: 5-11
Notable moves:
- Signed CB Chris Harris Jr., OT Bryan Bulaga, DT Linval Joseph, LB Nick Vigil
- Traded for G Trai Turner
- Drafted QB Justin Herbert, LB Kenneth Murray
For the first time since 2004, Philip Rivers won't be found on the Chargers' roster. Tyrod Taylor takes over as the Week 1 starting quarterback, though Herbert - the No. 6 pick in April - is waiting in the wings as the future face of the franchise. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Austin Ekeler form a solid quartet for whoever's under center.
Bulaga and Turner enter the fold along the offensive line, a unit that has plagued Los Angeles for seemingly forever. If Sam Tevi or Trey Pipkins can solidify the left tackle spot, a significant boost to Anthony Lynn's pass and run games is entirely possible.
The Chargers field arguably the league's top secondary, as the recently signed Harris joins Casey Hayward and Desmond King as Pro Bowl talents on the unit. Unfortunately, the unit suffered a blow as Derwin James is set to once again miss a significant portion of the year. With shutdown coverage behind them, Joseph, Joey Bosa, and Melvin Ingram should feast in the front four despite some lingering concerns at linebacker.
On paper, L.A.'s roster appears to be the most complete of all last-place finishers from 2019. However, we couldn't slot the Bolts at No. 1 because they reside in the AFC West. The reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will once again be favored to represent their conference in the big game. The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders - both vastly improved this offseason - are no slouches, either.
2. Detroit Lions2019 record: 3-12-1
Notable moves:
- Signed LB Jamie Collins, CB Desmond Trufant, S Duron Harmon, OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, DT Danny Shelton, S Jayron Kearse
- Drafted CB Jeff Okudah, RB D'Andre Swift
We know what you're thinking: Do the Lions - who've earned just three playoff appearances and two 10-plus-win campaigns this century - really have a shot at vaulting from last to first in the NFC North? It's not as far-fetched as it may seem.
Detroit's 2019 record wasn't a fair indication of its talent level. Matt Patricia's squad started the year 2-0-1 before nearly topping the Chiefs and Green Bay Packers (at Lambeau Field). Matthew Stafford fractured his spine three weeks later, ending all hopes of success. Stafford is fully healthy with an excellent receiver duo in Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones and an improved rushing attack featuring Kerryon Johnson and rookie Swift at his disposal. If tight end T.J. Hockenson and an already stout offensive line progress, a breakout for this offense is entirely possible.
The Lions lost key defensive pieces in Darius Slay and Damon Harrison this offseason, but the additions could help compensate. However, putting together a consistent pass rush is still a major doubt. Incredibly, only Trey Flowers and Devon Kennard notched more than four sacks in 2019, and the latter signed with the Arizona Cardinals in March. Detroit will hope Collins and rookie Julian Okwara can provide enough boost off the edge, and a surprisingly deep secondary will only benefit the front four.
Green Bay and the Minnesota Vikings are widely regarded as the NFC North's best, though both face plenty of questions. The Packers likely won't repeat their 13-3 season with minimal upgrades to their offense, possibly opening the door for Detroit to compete for the top spot in a wide-open division.
1. Arizona Cardinals
Christian Petersen / Getty Images Sport / Getty2019 record: 5-10-1
Notable moves:
- Signed LB Devon Kennard, DT Jordan Phillips, LB De'Vondre Campbell, OT Kelvin Beachum
- Traded for WR DeAndre Hopkins
- Drafted LB Isaiah Simmons, OT Josh Jones
Buckle up for Year 2 of Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray. After flashing unique playmaking ability as a rookie, Murray is primed to take the league by storm in 2020. Sophomore passers emerged as MVP candidates in each of the last three campaigns, and the Cardinals will stand an excellent chance at winning the NFC West if the 2019 first overall pick follows the trend.
The addition of Hopkins and a full season of Kenyan Drake in the backfield surely won't hurt Murray's odds. The former is still one of the league's elite receivers, while Drake was incredibly productive after being acquired from the Miami Dolphins, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and scoring eight touchdowns in eight games with Arizona. Add Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk to the mix, and slowing down Kingsbury's offense won't be an easy task.
The Cardinals were desperate to upgrade their defense after ranking last in yards allowed and 31st against the pass last season. Simmons, Kennard, and Phillips provide just that, not to mention Patrick Peterson won't be facing a suspension ahead of Week 1. Arizona's roster already features one of the NFL's premier pass-rushers and young safeties in Chandler Jones and Budda Baker, respectively.
In addition to their improved roster, the Cardinals come in at No. 1 due to the division they reside in. It's anyone's game in the NFC West - the San Francisco 49ers aren't a lock to repeat their Super Bowl run, the Los Angeles Rams lost key pieces on both sides of the ball, and the Seattle Seahawks' play in the trenches leaves much to be desired. The door's open for Arizona, and Murray and Co. are poised to seize the opportunity.
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