NHL playoff picks: Bolts to bounce Bruins from the bubble

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Another 2-0 day on Sunday closed out a perfect 4-0 weekend as we cruise toward the end of Round 2. Those series bets are looking quite nice, as well.

Let's never lose again.

Boston Bruins (-105) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-125)

You imagine a team as experienced as the Bruins will come out swinging when backed into a corner. But, they've provided little evidence to suggest that will be the case here. This veteran bunch has been thoroughly outplayed since the second period of Game 1 and, on the brink of elimination in Game 5, they look cooked.

As good as Boston's top line is, it's asking a lot for them to shoulder this large of a burden. The Lightning's depth has overwhelmed the Bruins, who have been deprived of secondary scoring as a result. Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak have scored five of their team's eight goals in the series, and four of those eight have come on the power play. Scoring just four five-on-five goals through four games isn't a recipe for winning a series.

The Lightning have been better in every aspect of this series, one which they are good value to finish off Monday night. Boston won Game 1 when these teams met in the 2018 playoffs before losing four straight, and all signs point to history repeating itself tonight.

Pick: Lightning (-125)

Dallas Stars (+115) @ Colorado Avalanche (-135)

We cashed together on the Stars (+115) if you tailed yesterday, but I'm flipping the script Monday night. Dallas was coming off its best contest of the series in Game 3, and now the same can be argued regarding the Avalanche in Game 4 despite losing.

It was the first time in this series the Avs truly had the better play at five-on-five, controlling an almost unbelievable 68.99% of the expected goal share and generating 14 high-danger scoring chances to Dallas' six. Colorado couldn't stay out of the box and its penalty kill struggled, allowing the Stars to strike three times on the power play.

That wasn't the only issue for the Avalanche in a truly strange game. Cale Makar's error gifted the Stars the winning goal, but most detrimental was the Avs' awful start as they fell into a 3-0 hole after about 10 minutes. With their playoff lives hanging in the balance, expect a much different showing from the Avalanche right out of the gate to extend this series to a sixth game.

Pick: Avalanche (-135)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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